Namibia Logistics Association

2020/05 Coronavirus and the World Economy

Coronavirus and the World Economy

The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 209 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 16 cases and South Africa 1 845. China reported that the city of Wuhan lifted yesterday the restriction and the 11 million people are for the first time allowed to leave the city since the end of January or after 87 days. Namibia is in its 13th day of a total lockdown and overall the Nation is disciplined and adheres to the rules. The latest cases and deaths are the following:

Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 27 January – 9 April

Region/CountryCases27 JanCases27 FebCases26 MarCases2 AprCases9 Apr
China4 58178 49981 28581 58981 865
Europe556246 327490 714729 443
Africa  1 0054 68711 344
North America 7489 478256 160454 598
Rest of the World2 49553 322117 280242 192
Total4 58182 183471 417950 4301 519 442


From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe and currently 48.0% of all reported cases are in Europe and 69% of the total deaths.  The US reported already 215 344 cases. Only 0.7% of the reported cases are on the African continent. 

Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 27 January – 9 April

Region/CountryDeaths27 JanDeaths27 FebDeaths26 MarDeaths2 AprDeaths9 AprDeath ratio as% of cases
China1062 7473 2873 3183 3354.1%
Europe1414 14334 40661 0618.4%
Africa  281775494.8%
North America[1] 1 3346 24915 2323.6%
Rest of the World432 5034 1267 8103.2%
Total1062 80421 29548 27688 5365.8%


If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 130 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Spain, Italy, France and the UK have today 73.7% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World. 

Africa was out of limelight in the beginning and Egypt reported the first cases. Slowly the coronavirus pandemic is reaching the African continent and all countries reported 4 687cases. How is the virus spreading in the SADC region? There are only 2 555 cases reported in the SADC region and 52 deaths.

[1] North America is Canada and the US

Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 2 – 9 April 2020

SADC countryCases2 AprCases9 AprDeaths2 AprDeaths9 Apr
South Africa1 3531 845518
Zambia3639 1
Tanzania2025 1
Total1 7912 5552352


Each country of the World announced policies and regulations to fight the spread of the coronavirus.

Source: Compiled from Worldometers data

The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of February 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. There is light in the end of the tunnel, since 2 April a decline in the growth of cases and deaths occurred. 

The real economic costs are spiralling and a World recession has become a reality, much worse than 2009. The World economy will move into a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries. 

   Source: MSCI Index

The MSCI index was at 2401 on 22 February 2020 and closed yesterday at 1895, a fall of 26.7%. Each country in the World is announcing stimulus packages and stock markets stabilized for now.

Table 4: Selected international commodity prices

Winners for Namibia  
Energy: Brent oil-10.00%-52.56%

 Source: Trading economics. 2 April 2020 

The N$ is currently trading 18.26 to the US Dollar and 19.8 to the Euro. 

Compiled by: Rainer Ritter     

 9 April 2020