Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 212 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 16 cases and South Africa 7 808. China reported no new deaths for the week. Namibia emerged with stage 2 out of the lockdown on 5 May as expected. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 27 January – 7 May
| Region/Country | Cases27 Jan | Cases27 Feb | Cases26 Mar | Cases23 Apr | Cases30 Apr | Cases7 May |
| China | 4 581 | 78 499 | 81 285 | 82 798 | 82 862 | 82 885 |
| Europe | – | 556 | 246 327 | 1 090 873 | 1 219 278 | 1 299 546 |
| Africa | 1 005 | 24 894 | 36 703 | 47 267 | ||
| North America | 74 | 89 478 | 889 282 | 1 116 169 | 1 326 679 | |
| Rest of the World | – | 2 495 | 53 322 | 551 178 | 766 572 | 1 066 574 |
| Total | 4 581 | 82 183 | 471 417 | 2 639 025 | 3 221 584 | 3 822 951 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe and then to the US. Currently 34.7% of all reported cases are in North America and 54% of the total deaths are reported in Europe. The US reported 1 263 183 cases and 74 807 deaths. Only 1.2% of the reported cases are on the African continent; however one should keep in mind that testing is not done as expected.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 27 January – 7 May
| Region/Country | Deaths27 Jan | Deaths27 Feb | Deaths26 Mar | Deaths23 Apr | Deaths/30 Apr | Deaths/7 May |
| China | 106 | 2 747 | 3 287 | 4 632 | 4 633 | 4 633 |
| Europe | – | 14 | 14 143 | 110 387 | 131 603 | 143 127 |
| Africa | 28 | 1 237 | 1 557 | 1 997 | ||
| North America[1] | – | 1 334 | 49 655 | 64 665 | 79 039 | |
| Rest of the World | – | 43 | 2 503 | 18 352 | 25 805 | 36 288 |
| Total | 106 | 2 804 | 21 295 | 184 263 | 228 263 | 265 084 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 290 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Spain, Italy, France and the UK have today 70.3% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
Africa was out of limelight in the beginning and Egypt reported the first cases. Slowly the coronavirus pandemic is reaching the African continent and all countries reported 47 267 cases and 1 997 deaths. How is the virus spreading in the SADC region? There are only 10 088 cases reported in the SADC region and 230 deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 2 – 7 May 2020
| SADC country | Cases2 Apr | Cases23 Apr | Cases30 Apr | Cases7 May | Deaths2 Apr | Deaths23 Apr | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths7 May |
| South Africa | 1 353 | 3 635 | 5 350 | 7 808 | 5 | 65 | 103 | 153 |
| DRC | 109 | 359 | 491 | 797 | 9 | 25 | 30 | 35 |
| Tanzania | 20 | 284 | 480 | 480 | – | 10 | 16 | 16 |
| Mauritius | 154 | 329 | 332 | 332 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| Madagascar | 57 | 121 | 128 | 158 | – | – | – | – |
| Zambia | 36 | 74 | 97 | 146 | – | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Eswatini | 9 | 31 | 91 | 123 | – | – | 1 | 2 |
| Mozambique | 10 | 41 | 76 | 81 | – | – | – | – |
| Zimbabwe | 8 | 28 | 34 | 34 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Malawi | – | 23 | 36 | 43 | – | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Angola | 7 | 25 | 27 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Botswana | 4 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Namibia | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | – | – | – | – |
| Seychelles | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | – | – | – | – |
| Lesotho | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 1 791 | 4 999 | 7 200 | 10 088 | 23 | 78 | 173 | 230 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend. We will not reach zero cases soon, but we have to manage the risks strictly.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of February 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. There is light at the end of the tunnel and since 2 April a six week decline in the growth of cases and deaths occurred.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
From the data which is available one can see that a third wave is not on the way as the WHO predicted three weeks ago.
The World economy will move into a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 3: MSCI World Index
Source: MSCI Index
The MSCI index was at 2401 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Tuesday at 1998, a fall of 16.8%.
Table 4: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | -9.44% | -57.74% |
| Gold | 2.74% | 32.05% |
| Uranium | 18.64% | 35.93% |
| Losers | ||
| Copper | 2.84% | -15.62% |
| Lead | -7.12% | -14.06% |
| Zinc | 2.65% | -25.43% |
Source: Trading economics. 7 May 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point four weeks ago and with the weakening exchange rate one can probably see an increase in exports from May onwards.
The N$ is currently trading 18.8 to the US Dollar and 20.2 to the Euro.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
7 May 2020