Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 22 cases and South Africa 25 937. China reported only 28 new cases. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 27 January – 28 May
| Region/Country | Cases27 Jan | Cases27 Feb | Cases26 Mar | Cases30 Apr | Cases21 May | Cases28 May |
| China | 4 581 | 78 499 | 81 285 | 82 862 | 82 967 | 82 995 |
| Europe | – | 556 | 246 327 | 1 219 278 | 1 451 954 | 1 509 013 |
| Africa | 1 005 | 36 703 | 94 971 | 121 077 | ||
| North America | 74 | 89 478 | 1 116 169 | 1 675 460 | 1 833 322 | |
| Rest of the World | – | 2 495 | 53 322 | 766 572 | 1 818 402 | 2 243 696 |
| Total | 4 581 | 82 183 | 471 417 | 3 221 584 | 5 123 754 | 5 790 103 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 38.8% of all reported cases. The US reported 1 745 803 cases and 102 107 deaths. Only 2.1% of the reported cases and 1.0% of the deaths are on the African continent; however one should keep in mind that testing is not done as expected.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 27 January – 28 May
| Region/Country | Deaths27 Jan | Deaths27 Feb | Deaths26 Mar | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths/21 May | Deaths/28 May |
| China | 106 | 2 747 | 3 287 | 4 633 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
| Europe | – | 14 | 14 143 | 131 603 | 162 336 | 165 662 |
| Africa | 28 | 1 557 | 3 019 | 3 663 | ||
| North America[1] | – | 1 334 | 64 665 | 101 052 | 108 872 | |
| Rest of the World | – | 43 | 2 503 | 25 805 | 59 762 | 74 601 |
| Total | 106 | 2 804 | 21 295 | 228 263 | 330 803 | 357 432 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 390 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, UK, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium have today 66.5% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
Africa was out of limelight in the beginning and Egypt reported the first cases. Slowly the coronavirus pandemic is reaching the African continent and all countries reported 121 077 cases and 3 663 deaths. There are only 31 868 cases reported in the SADC region and 676 deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 2 Apr – 28 May 2020
| SADC country | Cases2 Apr | Cases30 Apr | Cases21 May | Cases28 May | Deaths2 Apr | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths21 May | Deaths28 May |
| South Africa | 1 353 | 5 350 | 19 137 | 25 937 | 5 | 103 | 369 | 552 |
| DRC | 109 | 491 | 1 835 | 2 546 | 9 | 30 | 61 | 68 |
| Zambia | 36 | 97 | 832 | 1 057 | – | 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Tanzania | 20 | 480 | 509 | 509 | – | 16 | 21 | 21 |
| Madagascar | 57 | 128 | 405 | 612 | – | – | 2 | 2 |
| Mauritius | 154 | 332 | 332 | 334 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Eswatini | 9 | 91 | 217 | 272 | – | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Mozambique | 10 | 76 | 156 | 227 | – | – | – | 1 |
| Malawi | – | 36 | 71 | 101 | – | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Angola | 7 | 27 | 58 | 71 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Zimbabwe | 8 | 34 | 48 | 132 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Botswana | 4 | 23 | 29 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Namibia | 14 | 16 | 18 | 22 | – | – | – | – |
| Seychelles | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | – | – | – | – |
| Lesotho | – | – | 1 | 2 | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 1 791 | 7 200 | 23 659 | 31 868 | 23 | 173 | 483 | 676 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend for 8 weeks already.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of March 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. The situation is improving by the week.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
From the data which is available one can see that a third wave is not on the way as the WHO predicted six weeks ago.
The World economy is in a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 3: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2401 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Wednesday at 2092, a fall of 12.9%. The latest improvement in stock exchanges is contrary to the normal investment logic. It seems to be that the Dow discounted already the world recession and low profitability of many companies and stocks are back in favour due to the low interest policy of central banks.
Table 4: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | 50.40% | -51.19% |
| Gold | 0.36% | 34.53% |
| Uranium | 5.60% | 40.87% |
| Losers | ||
| Copper | 0.46% | -10.38% |
| Lead | -0.26% | -10.38% |
| Zinc | -0.52% | -24.42% |
Source: Trading economics. 28 May 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point six weeks ago and with the weakening exchange rate one can probably see an increase in exports from May onwards. The N$ is currently trading 17.44 to the US Dollar and 19.11 to the Euro.
The Minister of Finance tabled the 2020/21 budget yesterday and the following was tabled:
Table 5: The 2020/21 Budget
| Budget | 2020/21N$ billion | 2019/20N$ billion |
| Total Revenue | 51, 397 | 58, 597 |
| Total Expenditure | 72, 772 | 66, 550 |
| Budget deficit | 21, 375 | 7, 953 |
| Deficit as % of GDP | 12.5% | 4.5% |
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
28 May 2020