Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 960 cases and South Africa 311 049. China reported an increase of 31 new cases. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 27 February – 16 July
| Region/Country | Cases27 Feb | Cases26 Mar | Cases30 Apr | Cases28 May | Cases25 June | Cases16 July |
| China | 78 499 | 81 285 | 82 862 | 82 995 | 83 449 | 83 612 |
| Europe | 556 | 246 327 | 1 219 278 | 1 509 013 | 1 647 992 | 1 743 715 |
| Africa | 1 005 | 36 703 | 121 077 | 329 888 | 623 168 | |
| North America | 74 | 89 478 | 1 116 169 | 1 833 322 | 2 564 950 | 3 725 576 |
| Rest of the World | 2 495 | 53 322 | 766 572 | 2 243 696 | 4 916 884 | 7 520 948 |
| Total | 82 183 | 471 417 | 3 221 584 | 5 790 103 | 9 543 163 | 13 697 019 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 54.9% of all reported cases. The US reported 3 616 747 cases and 140 140 deaths. Only 4.5% of the reported cases and 2.4% of the deaths are on the African continent; however one should keep in mind that testing is not done as expected, especially in Tanzania where since 9 May no new case was reported.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 27 February – 16 July
| Region/Country | Deaths27 Feb | Deaths26 Mar | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths/25 June | Deaths/16 July |
| China | 2 747 | 3 287 | 4 633 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
| Europe | 14 | 14 143 | 131 603 | 165 662 | 179 129 | 184 020 |
| Africa | 28 | 1 577 | 3 663 | 8 856 | 14 339 | |
| North America[1] | – | 1 334 | 64 665 | 108 872 | 132 766 | 148 950 |
| Rest of the World | 43 | 2 503 | 25 805 | 74 601 | 159 901 | 234 945 |
| Total | 2 804 | 21 295 | 228 263 | 357 432 | 485 294 | 586 888 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 628 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 70.9% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
Slowly the coronavirus pandemic is reaching the African continent and all countries reported 623 168 cases and 14 339 deaths. There are only 336 377 cases reported in the SADC region and 4 886 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 92.5% of the cases and 91.1% of the number of deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 30 Apr – 16 July 2020
| SADC country | Cases30 Apr | Cases28 May | Cases25 Jun | Cases16 Jul | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths28 May | Deaths25 Jun | Deaths16 Jul |
| South Africa | 5 350 | 25 937 | 111 796 | 311 049 | 103 | 552 | 2 205 | 4 453 |
| DRC | 491 | 2 546 | 6 213 | 8 163 | 30 | 68 | 142 | 192 |
| Madagascar | 128 | 612 | 1 787 | 5 605 | – | 2 | 16 | 43 |
| Malawi | 36 | 101 | 941 | 2 614 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 43 |
| Zambia | 97 | 1 057 | 1 489 | 1 895 | – | 7 | 18 | 42 |
| Eswatini | 91 | 272 | 690 | 1 489 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| Mozambique | 76 | 227 | 762 | 1 330 | – | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| Zimbabwe | 34 | 132 | 530 | 1 089 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| Namibia | 16 | 22 | 90 | 960 | – | – | – | 2 |
| Angola | 27 | 71 | 197 | 576 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 27 |
| Tanzania | 480 | 509 | 509 | 509 | 16 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Botswana | 23 | 35 | 92 | 399 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mauritius | 332 | 334 | 341 | 343 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Lesotho | – | 2 | 17 | 256 | – | – | – | 3 |
| Seychelles | 11 | 11 | 11 | 100 | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 7 200 | 31 868 | 125 465 | 336 377 | 173 | 676 | 2 452 | 4 886 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend for 18 weeks already, with a decline in the number of deaths but for the first time an increase of 0.5% in the number of cases.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of March 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. The situation is stagnating at the moment.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
From the data which is available one can see that a third wave is not on the way as the WHO predicted thirteen weeks ago. However, some countries experience an increase in cases again like the US, Iran and Israel. Which countries are the worst affected countries according to deaths and recorded cases? Belgium tops the list with the number of deaths per population and Qatar with the number of cases. A high number of cases does not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Qatar example demonstrates.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
| Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
| Belgium | 844 | |
| United Kingdom | 664 | |
| Spain | 608 | |
| Italy | 579 | |
| Sweden | 552 | |
| Qatar | 54 | 37 390 |
| Bahrain | 18 174 | |
| Chile | 16 787 | |
| Kuwait | 13 311 | |
| Peru | 10 238 | |
| South Africa | 75 | 5 242 |
| Namibia | 0.8 | 378 |
Source: Worldometers
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 3: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2401 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Tuesday at 2271, a fall of 5.8%. The Chinese economy returned to a 3.2% growth in the second quarter after experiencing a decline of -6.8% in the first quarter.
Table 5: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | 7.11% | -31.81% |
| Gold | 4.42% | 26.54% |
| Uranium | -1.06% | 26.40% |
| Copper | 9.86% | 5.07% |
| Losers | ||
| Lead | 4.79% | -8.56% |
| Zinc | 14.07% | -8.61% |
Source: Trading economics. 16 July 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point eleven weeks ago and copper prices improved for the year by 5.07%. The exchange rate was strengthening for the second week. The N$ is currently trading 16.66 to the US Dollar and 19.01 to the Euro.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
16 July 2020