Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 3 406 cases and South Africa 568 919. China reported an increase of 228 new cases. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 26 March – 13 August
| Region/Country | Cases26 Mar | Cases30 Apr | Cases28 May | Cases25 June | Cases30 July | Cases13 Aug |
| China | 81 285 | 82 862 | 82 995 | 83 449 | 84 165 | 84 756 |
| Europe | 246 327 | 1 219 278 | 1 509 013 | 1 647 992 | 1 866 609 | 2 046 845 |
| Africa | 1 005 | 36 703 | 121 077 | 329 888 | 874 804 | 1 064 653 |
| North America | 89 478 | 1 116 169 | 1 833 322 | 2 564 950 | 4 683 507 | 5 481 146 |
| Rest of the World | 53 322 | 766 572 | 2 243 696 | 4 916 884 | 9 678 841 | 12 130 134 |
| Total | 471 417 | 3 221 584 | 5 790 103 | 9 543 163 | 17 188 007 | 20 807 726 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 58.3% of all reported cases. The US reported 5 360 302 cases and 169 131 deaths. Only 5.1% of the reported cases and 3.3% of the deaths are on the African continent; however one should keep in mind that testing is not done as expected, especially in Tanzania where since 9 May no new case was reported.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 26 March – 13 August
| Region/Country | Deaths26 Mar | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths28 May | Deaths25 June | Deaths/30 July | Deaths/13 Aug |
| China | 3 287 | 4 633 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
| Europe | 14 143 | 131 603 | 165 662 | 179 129 | 185 792 | 188 107 |
| Africa | 28 | 1 577 | 3 663 | 8 856 | 19 649 | 24 766 |
| North America[1] | 1 334 | 64 665 | 108 872 | 132 766 | 162 757 | 178 137 |
| Rest of the World | 2 503 | 25 805 | 74 601 | 159 901 | 297 375 | 326 066 |
| Total | 21 295 | 228 263 | 357 432 | 485 294 | 670 207 | 747 268 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 785 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 68.3% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
Slowly the coronavirus pandemic is reaching the African continent and all countries reported 1 064 653 cases and 24 766 deaths. There are only 624 096 cases reported in the SADC region and 12 152 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 91.2% of the cases and 90.6% of the number of deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 28 May – 13 August 2020
| SADC country | Cases28 May | Cases25 Jun | Cases30 Jul | Cases13 Aug | Deaths28 Ma | Deaths25 Jun | Deaths30 Jul | Deaths13 Aug |
| South Africa | 25 350 | 111 796 | 471 123 | 568 919 | 552 | 2 205 | 7 497 | 11 010 |
| Madagascar | 612 | 1 787 | 10 317 | 13 397 | 2 | 16 | 99 | 156 |
| DRC | 2 546 | 6 213 | 8 931 | 9 538 | 68 | 142 | 210 | 225 |
| Zambia | 1 057 | 1 489 | 5 249 | 8 501 | 7 | 18 | 146 | 246 |
| Malawi | 101 | 941 | 3 738 | 4 752 | 4 | 11 | 103 | 152 |
| Zimbabwe | 132 | 530 | 2 879 | 4 893 | 4 | 6 | 41 | 122 |
| Eswatini | 272 | 690 | 2 551 | 3 525 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 63 |
| Namibia | 22 | 90 | 1 986 | 3 406 | – | – | 9 | 22 |
| Mozambique | 227 | 762 | 1 748 | 2 559 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 19 |
| Angola | 71 | 197 | 812 | 1 762 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 80 |
| Botswana | 35 | 92 | 804 | 1 066 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Lesotho | 2 | 17 | 576 | 798 | – | – | 13 | 24 |
| Tanzania | 509 | 509 | 509 | 509 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Mauritius | 334 | 341 | 344 | 344 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Seychelles | 11 | 11 | 114 | 127 | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 31 868 | 125 465 | 511 681 | 624 096 | 676 | 2 452 | 8 235 | 12 152 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend for 22 weeks.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of April 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For the declining trend continued especially with the number of deaths.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
From the data which is available one can see that a third wave is not on the way yet, with a strong decline in the number of cases and the number of deaths. Which countries are the worst affected countries according to deaths and recorded cases? Belgium tops the list with the number of deaths per population and Qatar with the number of cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Qatar example demonstrate.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
| Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
| Belgium | 854 | |
| United Kingdom | 683 | |
| Peru | 657 | |
| Spain | 611 | |
| Italy | 583 | |
| Qatar | 68 | 40 579 |
| Bahrain | 26 507 | |
| Chile | 19 763 | |
| Panama | 17 901 | |
| Kuwait | 17 249 | |
| South Africa | 185 | 9 579 |
| Namibia | 9 | 1 338 |
Source: Worldometers
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 3: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Wednesday at 2392, a fall of 0.5%. Stock markets are nearly back at pre corona virus levels.
Table 5: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | 5.31% | -24.04% |
| Gold | 6.99% | 27.62% |
| Uranium | -2.43% | 26.88% |
| Copper | -1.93% | 10.73% |
| Zinc | 8.72% | 5.75% |
| Losers | ||
| Lead | 3.77% | -5.29% |
Source: Trading economics. 13 August 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point fifteen weeks ago and copper prices improved for the year by 10.73%. The exchange rate strengthened slightly this week. The N$ is currently trading 17.45 to the US Dollar and 20.63 to the Euro.
This weekly report is now the 23rd and the coronavirus cases and deaths are declining for 22 weeks now and by the end of August the World will be nearly normal again. The world economy is nearly at the level of February 2020, but with substantially higher debt levels. The situation in Namibia regarding the spread of the coronavirus is not worrying if compared with many other countries. What is worrying in Southern Africa is the impact of the economic fallout on the exchange rate and tax revenue.
Graph 4: The exchange rate of the Rand/Namibian Dollar to the USD
Source: Bank of Namibia
The exchange rate of a country is strongly influenced by the respective economic policies, market sentiment and competitiveness. When President Zuma took over in 2009 as new President of SA, markets thought that he would introduce growth friendly policies, but the focus shifted on enrichment and state capture. The Rand strengthened when it became clear that Cyril Ramaphosa will be the next President of South Africa, but three later markets discounted already the ANC’s ability to have sound economic policies which was reflected in a capital outflow since April of this year and the demise of the Rand continued.
Namibia’s challenge is not the corona virus, but its ability to see beyond COVID-19 and focus on the revival of the economy with less revenue.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
13 August 2020