The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 12 069 cases and South Africa 696 494. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 28 May –15 October
| Region/Country | Cases28 May | Cases25 June | Cases30 July | Cases27 Aug | Cases01 Oct | Cases15 Oct |
| China | 82 995 | 83 449 | 84 165 | 85 004 | 85 414 | 85 622 |
| Europe | 1 509 013 | 1 647 992 | 1 866 609 | 2 214 400 | 3 518 217 | 4 628 637 |
| Africa | 121 077 | 329 888 | 874 804 | 1 204 134 | 1 480 015 | 1 584 560 |
| North America | 1 833 322 | 2 564 950 | 4 683 507 | 6 126 782 | 7 611 782 | 8 339 430 |
| Rest of the World | 2 243 696 | 4 916 884 | 9 678 841 | 14.705 | 21 529 765 | 24 108 264 |
| Total | 5 790 103 | 9 543 163 | 17.188 | 24.335 | 34 225 193 | 38 746 513 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 62.2% of all reported cases. There is a second wave in Europe currently. The US reported 8 150 043 cases and 221 843 deaths. Only 4.1% of the reported cases and 3.5% of the deaths are on the African continent and we are over the peak.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 28 May –15 October
| Region/Country | Deaths28 May | Deaths25 June | Deaths30 July | Deaths27 Aug | Deaths/01 Oct | Deaths/15 Oct |
| China | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
| Europe | 165 662 | 179 129 | 184 792 | 186 461 | 196 461 | 205 005 |
| Africa | 3 663 | 8 856 | 19 649 | 28 566 | 35 737 | 38 618 |
| North America[1] | 108 872 | 132 766 | 162 757 | 192 747 | 221 130 | 231 507 |
| Rest of the World | 74 601 | 159 901 | 297 375 | 417 268 | 561 432 | 617 117 |
| Total | 357 432 | 485 294 | 670 207 | 829 676 | 1 019 830 | 1 096 881 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 1 132 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 65.3% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 1 584 560 cases and 38 615 deaths. There are only 795 117 cases reported in the SADC region and 20 063 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 87.6% of the cases and 90.5% of the number of deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 30 July – 15 October 2020
| SADC country | Cases30 Jul | Cases27 Aug | Cases01 Oct | Cases15 Oct | Deaths30 Jul | Deaths27 Aug | Deaths01 Oct | Deaths15 Oct |
| South Africa | 471 123 | 615 701 | 674 339 | 696 494 | 7 497 | 13 502 | 16 734 | 18 151 |
| Madagascar | 10 317 | 14 554 | 16 454 | 16 754 | 99 | 181 | 232 | 237 |
| Zambia | 5 249 | 11 376 | 14 759 | 15 616 | 146 | 282 | 282 | 345 |
| Namibia | 1 986 | 6 432 | 11 265 | 12 069 | 9 | 59 | 121 | 130 |
| DRC | 8 931 | 9 912 | 10 685 | 10 935 | 210 | 254 | 272 | 281 |
| Mozambique | 1 748 | 3 590 | 8 728 | 10 392 | 11 | 21 | 61 | 73 |
| Zimbabwe | 2 879 | 6 251 | 7 919 | 8 055 | 41 | 179 | 228 | 231 |
| Angola | 812 | 2 332 | 5 725 | 6 846 | 33 | 103 | 183 | 227 |
| Malawi | 3 738 | 5 474 | 5 773 | 5 829 | 103 | 173 | 179 | 181 |
| Eswatini | 2 551 | 4 387 | 5 617 | 5 715 | 40 | 88 | 109 | 114 |
| Botswana | 804 | 1 633 | 3 172 | 3 515 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 20 |
| Lesotho | 576 | 1 051 | 1 595 | 1 833 | 13 | 31 | 36 | 42 |
| Tanzania | 509 | 509 | 509 | 509 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Mauritius | 344 | 348 | 381 | 407 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Seychelles | 114 | 136 | 144 | 148 | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 511 681 | 683 685 | 766 096 | 795 117 | 8 235 | 14 910 | 18 534 | 20 063 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend for 31 weeks.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of April 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For the declining trend continued especially with the number of deaths.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
From the data which is available one can see that the declining trend continuous with a further decrease in the deaths. Which countries are the worst affected countries according to deaths and recorded cases? Peru has replaced Belgium on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Qatar with the number of cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Qatar example demonstrate.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
| Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
| Peru | 1 012 | |
| Belgium | 886 | |
| Bolivia | 715 | |
| Spain | 715 | |
| Brazil | 713 | |
| Qatar | 78 | 45 802 |
| Bahrain | 44 602 | |
| Israel | 32 454 | |
| Panama | 28 178 | |
| Kuwait | 26 412 | |
| South Africa | 305 | 11 700 |
| Germany | 117 | 4 075 |
| Namibia | 51 | 4 726 |
Source: Worldometers
What is the trend in the Namibian reported cases of Covid-19? We can firmly establish already a turning point after 23 August and a strong declining trend is visible from the 3 day moving average.
Graph 3: The Namibian Covid-19 cases
Source: Worldometers
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 4: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Wednesday at 2454, a slight increase of 2.1%. The improvement in stock markets is also supported by the monthly improvement of 27% in the Baltic Dry Index (The Baltic Dry Index provides a benchmark for the price of moving major raw materials by sea) and the Chinese economy is steaming ahead, contrary to the domestic economy.
Table 5: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | -0.09% | -36.47% |
| Gold | -3.17% | 24.14% |
| Uranium | -2.82% | 17.91% |
| Copper | 3.68% | 8.48% |
| Zinc | -4.99% | 3.96% |
| Losers | ||
| Lead | -5.46% | -7.06% |
Source: Trading economics. 15 October 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point seventeen weeks ago in the past five weeks prices weakened again but stabilizing. Oil prices decreased in the past week and for the month by -0.09%. The exchange rate strengthened slightly this week and the N$ is currently trading 16.56 to the US Dollar and 19.47 to the Euro.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
15 October 2020