Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 31 cases and South Africa 55 421. China reported only 35 new cases. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 27 January – 11 June
| Region/Country | Cases27 Jan | Cases27 Feb | Cases26 Mar | Cases30 Apr | Cases28 May | Cases11 June |
| China | 4 581 | 78 499 | 81 285 | 82 862 | 82 995 | 83 057 |
| Europe | – | 556 | 246 327 | 1 219 278 | 1 509 013 | 1 550 955 |
| Africa | 1 005 | 36 703 | 121 077 | 208 553 | ||
| North America | 74 | 89 478 | 1 116 169 | 1 833 322 | 2 163 526 | |
| Rest of the World | – | 2 495 | 53 322 | 766 572 | 2 243 696 | 3 452 555 |
| Total | 4 581 | 82 183 | 471 417 | 3 221 584 | 5 790 103 | 7 458 646 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 46.3% of all reported cases. The US reported 2 066 401 cases and 115 130 deaths. Only 2.8% of the reported cases and 1.2% of the deaths are on the African continent; however one should keep in mind that testing is not done as expected.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 27 January – 11 June
| Region/Country | Deaths27 Jan | Deaths27 Feb | Deaths26 Mar | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths/28 May | Deaths/11 June |
| China | 106 | 2 747 | 3 287 | 4 633 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
| Europe | – | 14 | 14 143 | 131 603 | 165 662 | 172 092 |
| Africa | 28 | 1 557 | 3 663 | 4 904 | ||
| North America[1] | – | 1 334 | 64 665 | 108 872 | 123 090 | |
| Rest of the World | – | 43 | 2 503 | 25 805 | 74 601 | 114 300 |
| Total | 106 | 2 804 | 21 295 | 228 263 | 357 432 | 419 020 |
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 455 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, UK, Spain, Brazil, Italy, France and Mexico have today 72% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
Slowly the coronavirus pandemic is reaching the African continent and all countries reported 208 553 cases and 4 904 deaths. There are only 64 871 cases reported in the SADC region and 1 375 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 85.4% of the cases and 88% of the number of deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 2 Apr – 11 June 2020
| SADC country | Cases2 Apr | Cases30 Apr | Cases28 May | Cases11 June | Deaths2 Apr | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths28 May | Deaths11 June |
| South Africa | 1 353 | 5 350 | 25 937 | 55 421 | 5 | 103 | 552 | 1 210 |
| DRC | 109 | 491 | 2 546 | 4 390 | 9 | 30 | 68 | 96 |
| Zambia | 36 | 97 | 1 057 | 1 200 | – | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| Madagascar | 57 | 128 | 612 | 1 162 | – | – | 2 | 10 |
| Tanzania | 20 | 480 | 509 | 509 | – | 16 | 21 | 21 |
| Malawi | – | 36 | 101 | 455 | – | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Mauritius | 154 | 332 | 334 | 337 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Mozambique | 10 | 76 | 227 | 472 | – | – | 1 | 2 |
| Eswatini | 9 | 91 | 272 | 398 | – | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Zimbabwe | 8 | 34 | 132 | 320 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Angola | 7 | 27 | 71 | 113 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Botswana | 4 | 23 | 35 | 48 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Namibia | 14 | 16 | 22 | 31 | – | – | – | – |
| Seychelles | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | – | – | – | – |
| Lesotho | – | – | 2 | 4 | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 1 791 | 7 200 | 31 868 | 64 871 | 23 | 173 | 676 | 1 375 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend for 12 weeks already.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of March 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. The situation is improving by the week.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
From the data which is available one can see that a third wave is not on the way as the WHO predicted eight weeks ago.
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 3: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2401 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Wednesday at 2267, a fall of 5.7%. According to June OECD report the World economy will decline by 6.0% in 2020 as a whole. The latest improvement in stock exchanges seems to discount already the world recession and low profitability of many listed companies. Stocks seem to be back in favour due to the low interest policy of central banks.
Table 4: Projected economic growth in GDP of major economies
| 2020 | 2021 | |
| World | -6.0 | 5.2 |
| US | -7.3 | 4.1 |
| China | -2.6 | 6.8 |
| Japan | -6.0 | 2.1 |
| Germany | -6.6 | 5.8 |
| India | -3.7 | 7.9 |
| United Kingdom | -11.5 | 9.0 |
| France | -11.4 | 7.7 |
| South Africa | -7.5 | 2.5 |
Source: OECD June forecast
The Bank of Namibia predicts a real decline of 6.9% for Namibia in 2020, however the disproportional economic consequences of managing the COVID 19 cases in Namibia (Erongo region lockdown, regulations, slow testing at cross border points and not enough testing) will be much worse and one can expect a decline of at least -8% in 2020.
Table 5: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | 28.55% | -35.73% |
| Gold | 1.71% | 29.86% |
| Uranium | -1.19% | 33.67% |
| Losers | ||
| Copper | 10.95% | -2.61% |
| Lead | 4.76% | -9.71% |
| Zinc | -0.39% | -19.47% |
Source: Trading economics. 11 June 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point eight weeks ago and the exchange rate is strengthening for five consecutive weeks already. The N$ is currently trading 16.7 to the US Dollar and 18.97 to the Euro.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
11 June 2020