Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 39 cases and South Africa 80 412. China reported a sudden increase of 236 new cases. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 27 January – 18 June
| Region/Country | Cases27 Jan | Cases27 Feb | Cases26 Mar | Cases30 Apr | Cases28 May | Cases18 June |
| China | 4 581 | 78 499 | 81 285 | 82 862 | 82 995 | 83 293 |
| Europe | – | 556 | 246 327 | 1 219 278 | 1 509 013 | 1 603 553 |
| Africa | 1 005 | 36 703 | 121 077 | 251 016 | ||
| North America | 74 | 89 478 | 1 116 169 | 1 833 322 | 2 334 324 | |
| Rest of the World | – | 2 495 | 53 322 | 766 572 | 2 243 696 | 4 133 897 |
| Total | 4 581 | 82 183 | 471 417 | 3 221 584 | 5 790 103 | 8 406 083 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 46.3% of all reported cases. The US reported 2 248 328 cases and 120 290 deaths. Only 3.0% of the reported cases and 1.6% of the deaths are on the African continent; however one should keep in mind that testing is not done as expected, especially in Tanzania.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 27 January – 18 June
| Region/Country | Deaths27 Jan | Deaths27 Feb | Deaths26 Mar | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths/28 May | Deaths/18 June |
| China | 106 | 2 747 | 3 287 | 4 633 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
| Europe | – | 14 | 14 143 | 131 603 | 165 662 | 175 656 |
| Africa | 28 | 1 557 | 3 663 | 7 421 | ||
| North America[1] | – | 1 334 | 64 665 | 108 872 | 128 195 | |
| Rest of the World | – | 43 | 2 503 | 25 805 | 74 601 | 135 481 |
| Total | 106 | 2 804 | 21 295 | 228 263 | 357 432 | 451 387 |
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 488 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, UK, Spain, Brazil, Italy, France and Mexico have today 70.8% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
Slowly the coronavirus pandemic is reaching the African continent and all countries reported 251 016 cases and 7 241 deaths. There are only 91 623 cases reported in the SADC region and 1 869 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 87.8% of the cases and 89.6% of the number of deaths. Tanzania has now for 4 weeks a consistent number of cases and this is a concern, clearly they are underreporting.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 2 Apr – 18 June 2020
| SADC country | Cases2 Apr | Cases30 Apr | Cases28 May | Cases18 June | Deaths2 Apr | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths28 May | Deaths18 June |
| South Africa | 1 353 | 5 350 | 25 937 | 80 412 | 5 | 103 | 552 | 1 674 |
| DRC | 109 | 491 | 2 546 | 5 100 | 9 | 30 | 68 | 115 |
| Zambia | 36 | 97 | 1 057 | 1 412 | – | 3 | 7 | 11 |
| Madagascar | 57 | 128 | 612 | 1 378 | – | – | 2 | 12 |
| Mozambique | 10 | 76 | 227 | 651 | – | – | 1 | 4 |
| Malawi | – | 36 | 101 | 572 | – | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Eswatini | 9 | 91 | 272 | 563 | – | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Tanzania | 20 | 480 | 509 | 509 | – | 16 | 21 | 21 |
| Zimbabwe | 8 | 34 | 132 | 401 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Mauritius | 154 | 332 | 334 | 337 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Angola | 7 | 27 | 71 | 155 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| Botswana | 4 | 23 | 35 | 79 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Namibia | 14 | 16 | 22 | 39 | – | – | – | – |
| Seychelles | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | – | – | – | – |
| Lesotho | – | – | 2 | 4 | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 1 791 | 7 200 | 31 868 | 91 623 | 23 | 173 | 676 | 1 869 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend for 13 weeks already.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of March 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. The situation is improving by the week.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
From the data which is available one can see that a third wave is not on the way as the WHO predicted nine weeks ago. Which countries are the worst affected countries according to deaths and recorded cases? Belgium tops the list with the number of deaths per population and Qatar with the number of cases.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
| Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
| Belgium | 836 | |
| United Kingdom | 623 | |
| Spain | 580 | |
| Italy | 571 | |
| Sweden | 500 | |
| Qatar | 30 074 | |
| San Marino | 20 513 | |
| Chile | 11 779 | |
| Bahrain | 11 752 | |
| Kuwait | 8 921 | |
| Namibia | 15 |
Source: Worldometers
If Namibia is serious of managing the coronavirus, they should be much more pro-active in testing and not only re-active.
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 3: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2401 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Wednesday at 2218, a fall of 7.7%.
Table 4: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | 19.71% | -27.77% |
| Gold | -1.16% | 26.76% |
| Uranium | -1.49% | 35.58% |
| Losers | ||
| Copper | 7.41% | -3.33% |
| Lead | 8.43% | -5.67% |
| Zinc | -0.22% | -18.50% |
Source: Trading economics. 18 June 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point nine weeks ago and the exchange rate was weakening in the last week. The N$ is currently trading 17.2 to the US Dollar and 19.4 to the Euro.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
18 June 2020