Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 90 cases and South Africa 111 796. China reported an increase of 156 new cases. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 27 January – 25 June
| Region/Country | Cases27 Jan | Cases27 Feb | Cases26 Mar | Cases30 Apr | Cases28 May | Cases25 June |
| China | 4 581 | 78 499 | 81 285 | 82 862 | 82 995 | 83 449 |
| Europe | – | 556 | 246 327 | 1 219 278 | 1 509 013 | 1 647 992 |
| Africa | 1 005 | 36 703 | 121 077 | 329 888 | ||
| North America | 74 | 89 478 | 1 116 169 | 1 833 322 | 2 564 950 | |
| Rest of the World | – | 2 495 | 53 322 | 766 572 | 2 243 696 | 4 916 884 |
| Total | 4 581 | 82 183 | 471 417 | 3 221 584 | 5 790 103 | 9 543 163 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 51.5% of all reported cases. The US reported 2 462 708 cases and 124 282 deaths. Only 3.5% of the reported cases and 1.8% of the deaths are on the African continent; however one should keep in mind that testing is not done as expected, especially in Tanzania.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 27 January – 25 June
| Region/Country | Deaths27 Jan | Deaths27 Feb | Deaths26 Mar | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths/28 May | Deaths/25 June |
| China | 106 | 2 747 | 3 287 | 4 633 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
| Europe | – | 14 | 14 143 | 131 603 | 165 662 | 179 129 |
| Africa | 28 | 1 557 | 3 663 | 8 856 | ||
| North America[1] | – | 1 334 | 64 665 | 108 872 | 132 766 | |
| Rest of the World | – | 43 | 2 503 | 25 805 | 74 601 | 159 901 |
| Total | 106 | 2 804 | 21 295 | 228 263 | 357 432 | 485 294 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 525 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, UK, Spain, Brazil, Italy, France and Mexico have today 63.6% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
Slowly the coronavirus pandemic is reaching the African continent and all countries reported 329 888 cases and 8 856 deaths. There are only 125 456 cases reported in the SADC region and 2 542 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 89.1% of the cases and 89.9% of the number of deaths. Tanzania has now for 5 weeks a consistent number of cases and this is a concern, clearly they are underreporting.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 2 Apr – 25 June 2020
| SADC country | Cases2 Apr | Cases30 Apr | Cases28 May | Cases25 June | Deaths2 Apr | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths28 May | Deaths25 June |
| South Africa | 1 353 | 5 350 | 25 937 | 111 796 | 5 | 103 | 552 | 2 205 |
| DRC | 109 | 491 | 2 546 | 6 213 | 9 | 30 | 68 | 142 |
| Zambia | 36 | 97 | 1 057 | 1 489 | – | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| Madagascar | 57 | 128 | 612 | 1 787 | – | – | 2 | 16 |
| Mozambique | 10 | 76 | 227 | 762 | – | – | 1 | 5 |
| Malawi | – | 36 | 101 | 941 | – | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| Eswatini | 9 | 91 | 272 | 690 | – | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| Tanzania | 20 | 480 | 509 | 509 | – | 16 | 21 | 21 |
| Zimbabwe | 8 | 34 | 132 | 530 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Mauritius | 154 | 332 | 334 | 341 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Angola | 7 | 27 | 71 | 197 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| Botswana | 4 | 23 | 35 | 92 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Namibia | 14 | 16 | 22 | 90 | – | – | – | – |
| Seychelles | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | – | – | – | – |
| Lesotho | – | – | 2 | 17 | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 1 791 | 7 200 | 31 868 | 125 465 | 23 | 173 | 676 | 2 452 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend for 14 weeks already.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of March 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. The situation is improving by the week.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
From the data which is available one can see that a third wave is not on the way as the WHO predicted ten weeks ago. Which countries are the worst affected countries according to deaths and recorded cases? Belgium tops the list with the number of deaths per population and Qatar with the number of cases.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
| Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
| Belgium | 839 | |
| United Kingdom | 635 | |
| Spain | 606 | |
| Italy | 573 | |
| Sweden | 516 | |
| Qatar | 32 331 | |
| Bahrain | 13 867 | |
| Chile | 13 311 | |
| Kuwait | 9 809 | |
| Peru | 8 030 | |
| South Africa | 37 | 1 885 |
| Namibia | – | 30 |
Source: Worldometers
If Namibia is serious of managing the coronavirus, they should be much more pro-active in testing and not only re-active.
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 3: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2401 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Wednesday at 2180, a fall of 9.3%.
Table 5: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | 13.19% | -38.43% |
| Gold | 2.90% | 25.03% |
| Uranium | -3.07% | 34.48% |
| Losers | ||
| Copper | 9.29% | -2.56% |
| Lead | 5.07% | -7.92% |
| Zinc | 2.23% | -16.92% |
Source: Trading economics. 25 June 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point nine weeks ago and the exchange rate was weakening for two consecutive weeks. The N$ is currently trading 17.46 to the US Dollar and 19.63 to the Euro.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
25 June 2020