Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 6 431 cases and South Africa 615 701. China reported an increase of 109 new cases. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 26 March – 27 August
| Region/Country | Cases26 Mar | Cases30 Apr | Cases28 May | Cases25 June | Cases30 July | Cases27 Aug |
| China | 81 285 | 82 862 | 82 995 | 83 449 | 84 165 | 85 004 |
| Europe | 246 327 | 1 219 278 | 1 509 013 | 1 647 992 | 1 866 609 | 2 214 400 |
| Africa | 1 005 | 36 703 | 121 077 | 329 888 | 874 804 | 1 204 134 |
| North America | 89 478 | 1 116 169 | 1 833 322 | 2 564 950 | 4 683 507 | 6 126 782 |
| Rest of the World | 53 322 | 766 572 | 2 243 696 | 4 916 884 | 9 678 841 | 15 909 555 |
| Total | 471 417 | 3 221 584 | 5 790 103 | 9 543 163 | 17 188 007 | 24 335 741 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 65.4% of all reported cases. The US reported 6 000 365 cases and 183 653 deaths. Only 5.1% of the reported cases and 3.4% of the deaths are on the African continent; however one should keep in mind that testing is not done as expected, especially in Tanzania where since 9 May no new case was reported.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 26 March – 27 August
| Region/Country | Deaths26 Mar | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths28 May | Deaths25 June | Deaths/30 July | Deaths/27 Aug |
| China | 3 287 | 4 633 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
| Europe | 14 143 | 131 603 | 165 662 | 179 129 | 184 792 | 186 461 |
| Africa | 28 | 1 577 | 3 663 | 8 856 | 19 649 | 28 566 |
| North America[1] | 1 334 | 64 665 | 108 872 | 132 766 | 162 757 | 192 747 |
| Rest of the World | 2 503 | 25 805 | 74 601 | 159 901 | 297 375 | 445 834 |
| Total | 21 295 | 228 263 | 357 432 | 485 294 | 670 207 | 829 676 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 875 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 67.6% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
Slowly the coronavirus pandemic is reaching the African continent and all countries reported 1 204 134 cases and 28 566 deaths. There are only 683 685 cases reported in the SADC region and 14 910 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 90.1% of the cases and 90.6% of the number of deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 28 May – 27 August 2020
| SADC country | Cases28 May | Cases25 Jun | Cases30 Jul | Cases27 Aug | Deaths28 Ma | Deaths25 Jun | Deaths30 Jul | Deaths27 Aug |
| South Africa | 25 350 | 111 796 | 471 123 | 615 701 | 552 | 2 205 | 7 497 | 13 502 |
| Madagascar | 612 | 1 787 | 10 317 | 14 554 | 2 | 16 | 99 | 181 |
| Zambia | 1 057 | 1 489 | 5 249 | 11 376 | 7 | 18 | 146 | 282 |
| DRC | 2 546 | 6 213 | 8 931 | 9 912 | 68 | 142 | 210 | 254 |
| Namibia | 22 | 90 | 1 986 | 6 431 | – | – | 9 | 59 |
| Zimbabwe | 132 | 530 | 2 879 | 6 251 | 4 | 6 | 41 | 179 |
| Malawi | 101 | 941 | 3 738 | 5 474 | 4 | 11 | 103 | 173 |
| Eswatini | 272 | 690 | 2 551 | 4 387 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 88 |
| Mozambique | 227 | 762 | 1 748 | 3 590 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 21 |
| Angola | 71 | 197 | 812 | 2 332 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 103 |
| Botswana | 35 | 92 | 804 | 1 633 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| Lesotho | 2 | 17 | 576 | 1 051 | – | – | 13 | 31 |
| Tanzania | 509 | 509 | 509 | 509 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Mauritius | 334 | 341 | 344 | 348 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Seychelles | 11 | 11 | 114 | 136 | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 31 868 | 125 465 | 511 681 | 683 685 | 676 | 2 452 | 8 235 | 14 910 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend for 24 weeks.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of April 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For the declining trend continued especially with the number of cases and a 1.0% decrease in the number of deaths.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
From the data which is available one can see that for the first time there is an increase in the number of cases and deaths, driven by India, Argentina, Peru and Indonesia. It is too early to say a third wave is on the way, one has to look at the trend in the coming next weeks. Which countries are the worst affected countries according to deaths and recorded cases? Belgium tops the list with the number of deaths per population and Qatar with the number of cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Qatar example demonstrate.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
| Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
| Belgium | 852 | |
| Peru | 851 | |
| Spain | 620 | |
| United Kingdom | 610 | |
| Italy | 587 | |
| Qatar | 69 | 41 934 |
| Bahrain | 29 471 | |
| Chile | 21 021 | |
| Panama | 20 597 | |
| Kuwait | 19 222 | |
| South Africa | 227 | 10 361 |
| Germany | 112 | 2 841 |
| Namibia | 23 | 2 524 |
Source: Worldometers
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 3: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Tuesday at 2433, a rise of 0.5%. For the first time stock markets are back at a level of February this year, it took 6 months for the recovery.
Table 5: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | 5.69% | -24.48% |
| Gold | -1.94% | 24.83% |
| Uranium | -4.35% | 21.75% |
| Copper | 2.38% | 16.35% |
| Zinc | 10.08% | 10.52% |
| Losers | ||
| Lead | 6.13% | -5.51% |
Source: Trading economics. 27 August 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point sixteen weeks ago and copper prices improved for the year by 14.78%. The exchange rate strengthened slightly this week. The N$ is currently trading 16.84 to the US Dollar and 19.96 to the Euro.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
27 August 2020