2020/26 Coronavirus and the World Economy

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Coronavirus and the World Economy

The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 7 844 cases and South Africa 630 595. The latest cases and deaths are the following:

Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 30 April –03 September

Region/CountryCases30 AprCases28 MayCases25 JuneCases30 JulyCases27 AugCases03 Sep
China82 86282 99583 44984 16585 00485 077
Europe1 219 2781 509 0131 647 9921 866 6092 214 4002 441 355
Africa36 703121 077329 888874 8041 204 1341 263 322
North America1 116 1691 833 3222 564 9504 683 5076 126 7826 420 660
Rest of the World766 5722 243 6964 916 8849 678 84114 705 42115 973 532
Total3 221 5845 790 1039 543 163 17.18824 335 74126 183 946

Source: worldometers.info

From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 65.4% of all reported cases. The US reported 6 290 737 cases and 189 964 deaths. Only 4.8% of the reported cases and 3.5% of the deaths are on the African continent; however one should keep in mind that testing is not done as expected, especially in Tanzania where since 9 May no new case was reported. 

Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 30 April –03 September

Region/CountryDeaths30 AprDeaths28 MayDeaths25 JuneDeaths30 JulyDeaths/27 Aug Deaths/3 Sep
China4 6334 6344 6344 6344 6344 634
Europe131 603165 662179 129184 792186 461187 797
Africa1 5773 6638 85619 64928 56630 212
North America[1]64 665108 872132 766162 757192 747199 099
Rest of the World25 80574 601159 901297 375417 268445 628
Total228 263357 432485 294670 207829 676867 370

Source: worldometers.info

If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 905 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 67.3% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World. 

The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 1 263 322 cases and 30 212 deaths. There are only 703 580 cases reported in the SADC region and 15 898 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 89.6% of the cases and 90.5% of the number of deaths. 

Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 25 June – 3 September 2020

SADC countryCases25 JunCases30 JulCases27 AugCases3 SepDeaths25 JunDeaths30 JulDeaths27 AugDeaths3 Sep
South Africa111 796471 123615 701630 5952 2057 49713 50214 389
Madagascar1 78710 31714 55415 0231699181196
Zambia1 4895 24911 37612 41518146282292
DRC6 2138 9319 91210 114142210254259
Namibia901 9866 4317 844–95982
Zimbabwe5302 8796 2516 638641179206
Malawi9413 7385 4745 57911103173175
Eswatini6902 5514 3874 6687408894
Mozambique7621 7483 5904 1175112125
Angola1978122 3322 7771033103112
Botswana928041 6331 7241266
Lesotho175761 0511 085–133131
Tanzania50950950950921212121
Mauritius34134434835610101010
Seychelles11114136136––––
Total125 465511 681511 681703 5802 4528 23514 91015 898

Source: Worldometers.info

Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend for 25 weeks. 

Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths

The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of April 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For the declining trend continued especially with the number of cases and a 0.4% decrease in the number of deaths. 

Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world

Source: Compiled from Worldometers data

[1] North America is Canada and the US

From the data which is available one can see that the decline continuous with a decrease in the number of cases and deaths. Which countries are the worst affected countries according to deaths and recorded cases? Peru has replaced Belgium on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Qatar with the number of cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Qatar example demonstrate.

Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases

CountryDeaths/1M pop.Total cases/1M pop.
Peru885 
Belgium853 
Spain624 
United Kingdom611 
Chile593 
Qatar7142 455
Bahrain 30 862
Chile 21 663
Panama 21 747
Kuwait 20 199
South Africa24210 610
Germany1122 951
Namibia323 078

Source: Worldometers

What is the trend in the Namibian reported cases of Covid-19? Can we establish already a turning point?

Graph 3: The Namibian Covid-19 cases

Source: Worldometers

Indications are that we have reached a turning point after 23 August with on average an declining trend. 

The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries. 

Graph 4: MSCI World Index

The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Tuesday at 2467, a rise of 2.7%. For the second week stock markets are above the level of February this year, it took 6 months for the recovery. 

Table 5: Selected international commodity prices

CommodityMonthlyYearly
Winners for Namibia  
Energy: Brent oil-1.94%-28.22%
Gold-4.57%24.60%
Uranium-4.18%22.57%
Copper2.78%15.39%
Zinc8.00%8.87%
Losers  
Lead3.34%-6.60%

 Source: Trading economics. 3 September 2020 

The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point seventeen weeks ago and copper prices improved for the year by 15.39%. The exchange rate strengthened slightly this week. The N$ is currently trading 16.86 to the US Dollar and 19.9 to the Euro. 

Compiled by: Rainer Ritter 

3 September 2020