Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 9 108 cases and South Africa 642 431. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 30 April –10 September
| Region/Country | Cases30 Apr | Cases28 May | Cases25 June | Cases30 July | Cases27 Aug | Cases10 Sep |
| China | 82 862 | 82 995 | 83 449 | 84 165 | 85 004 | 85 153 |
| Europe | 1 219 278 | 1 509 013 | 1 647 992 | 1 866 609 | 2 214 400 | 2 550 847 |
| Africa | 36 703 | 121 077 | 329 888 | 874 804 | 1 204 134 | 1 307 315 |
| North America | 1 116 169 | 1 833 322 | 2 564 950 | 4 683 507 | 6 126 782 | 6 683 769 |
| Rest of the World | 766 572 | 2 243 696 | 4 916 884 | 9 678 841 | 14 705 421 | 17 398 097 |
| Total | 3 221 584 | 5 790 103 | 9 543 163 | 17.188 | 24 335 741 | 28 025 181 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 62.1% of all reported cases. The US reported 6 549 475 cases and 195 239 deaths. Only 4.7% of the reported cases and 3.6% of the deaths are on the African continent; however one should keep in mind that testing is not done as expected, especially in Tanzania where since 9 May no new case was reported.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 30 April –10 September
| Region/Country | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths28 May | Deaths25 June | Deaths30 July | Deaths/27 Aug | Deaths/10 Sep |
| China | 4 633 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
| Europe | 131 603 | 165 662 | 179 129 | 184 792 | 186 461 | 189 290 |
| Africa | 1 577 | 3 663 | 8 856 | 19 649 | 28 566 | 32 374 |
| North America[1] | 64 665 | 108 872 | 132 766 | 162 757 | 192 747 | 204 394 |
| Rest of the World | 25 805 | 74 601 | 159 901 | 297 375 | 417 268 | 477 308 |
| Total | 228 263 | 357 432 | 485 294 | 670 207 | 829 676 | 908 000 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 954 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 67.7% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 1 307 315 cases and 32 374 deaths. There are only 720 666 cases reported in the SADC region and 16 747 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 89.1% of the cases and 90.6% of the number of deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 25 June – 10 September 2020
| SADC country | Cases25 Jun | Cases30 Jul | Cases27 Aug | Cases10 Sep | Deaths25 Jun | Deaths30 Jul | Deaths27 Aug | Deaths10 Sep |
| South Africa | 111 796 | 471 123 | 615 701 | 642 431 | 2 205 | 7 497 | 13 502 | 15 168 |
| Madagascar | 1 787 | 10 317 | 14 554 | 15 520 | 16 | 99 | 181 | 206 |
| Zambia | 1 489 | 5 249 | 11 376 | 13 112 | 18 | 146 | 282 | 300 |
| DRC | 6 213 | 8 931 | 9 912 | 10 324 | 142 | 210 | 254 | 260 |
| Namibia | 90 | 1 986 | 6 431 | 9 108 | – | 9 | 59 | 93 |
| Zimbabwe | 530 | 2 879 | 6 251 | 7 429 | 6 | 41 | 179 | 222 |
| Malawi | 941 | 3 738 | 5 474 | 5 653 | 11 | 103 | 173 | 176 |
| Eswatini | 690 | 2 551 | 4 387 | 4 936 | 7 | 40 | 88 | 97 |
| Mozambique | 762 | 1 748 | 3 590 | 4 764 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 28 |
| Angola | 197 | 812 | 2 332 | 3 092 | 10 | 33 | 103 | 126 |
| Botswana | 92 | 804 | 1 633 | 2 126 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| Lesotho | 17 | 576 | 1 051 | 1 164 | – | 13 | 31 | 31 |
| Tanzania | 509 | 509 | 509 | 509 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Mauritius | 341 | 344 | 348 | 361 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Seychelles | 11 | 114 | 136 | 137 | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 125 465 | 511 681 | 683 685 | 720 666 | 2 452 | 8 235 | 14 910 | 16 747 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend for 26 weeks.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of April 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For the declining trend continued especially with the number of cases. The weekly change in the number of deaths increased by 0.2%.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
From the data which is available one can see that we reached stagnation and a sideways movement but no third wave yet. Which countries are the worst affected countries according to deaths and recorded cases? Peru has replaced Belgium on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Qatar with the number of cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Qatar example demonstrate.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
| Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
| Peru | 915 | |
| Belgium | 855 | |
| Spain | 634 | |
| United Kingdom | 612 | |
| Chile | 611 | |
| Qatar | 71 | 43 039 |
| Bahrain | 33 593 | |
| Panama | 22 886 | |
| Chile | 22 302 | |
| Kuwait | 21 502 | |
| South Africa | 255 | 10 806 |
| Germany | 112 | 3 058 |
| Namibia | 32 | 3 078 |
Source: Worldometers
What is the trend in the Namibian reported cases of Covid-19? Can we establish already a turning point?
Graph 3: The Namibian Covid-19 cases
Source: Worldometers
Indications are that we have reached a turning point after 23 August with on average a declining trend.
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 4: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Wednesday at 2394, a fall of -0.4%. Has a new turning point arrived?
Table 5: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | -9.47% | -33.83% |
| Gold | 1.47% | 29.89% |
| Uranium | -2.17% | 25.90% |
| Copper | 4.97% | 15.00% |
| Zinc | -0.13% | 2.17% |
| Losers | ||
| Lead | -0.76% | -10.71% |
Source: Trading economics. 10 September 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point seventeen weeks ago in the past week prices weakened again coupled with the nervousness in the international stock markets. Oil prices declined by -9.5% since the 2nd of September and the Baltic Dry Index (benchmark of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea) declined -10.3% in the past, signalling that the recovery in the world economy has lost momentum. The exchange rate strengthened slightly this week. The N$ is currently trading 16.66 to the US Dollar and 19.7 to the Euro. South Africa recorded a negative decline of 51% in the second quarter of GDP growth. China is the only economy who recorded a positive growth of 3.2% in the second quarter. Namibia’s Q2 numbers will be announced soon.
Table 6: Q1 and Q2 GDP growth for selected economies
| Country | Q1 GDP 2020 | Q2 GDP 2020 |
| United States | -5.0% | -32.9% |
| China | -6.8% | 3.2% |
| Japan | -2.2% | -7.6% |
| Germany | -2.2% | -10.1% |
| UK | -2.2% | -20.4% |
| India | 3.1% | -23.9% |
| South Africa | -1.8% | -51.0% |
| Namibia | -0.8% | ? |
| Botswana | 2.6% | ? |
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
10 September 2020