Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 9 964 cases and South Africa 653 444. The World has also past the 30 million mark in cases recorded. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 30 April –17 September
| Region/Country | Cases30 Apr | Cases28 May | Cases25 June | Cases30 July | Cases27 Aug | Cases17 Sep |
| China | 82 862 | 82 995 | 83 449 | 84 165 | 85 004 | 85 223 |
| Europe | 1 219 278 | 1 509 013 | 1 647 992 | 1 866 609 | 2 214 400 | 2 856 920 |
| Africa | 36 703 | 121 077 | 329 888 | 874 804 | 1 204 134 | 1 363 013 |
| North America | 1 116 169 | 1 833 322 | 2 564 950 | 4 683 507 | 6 126 782 | 6 968 048 |
| Rest of the World | 766 572 | 2 243 696 | 4 916 884 | 9 678 841 | 14 705 421 | 18 763 756 |
| Total | 3 221 584 | 5 790 103 | 9 543 163 | 17.188 | 24 335 741 | 30 036 960 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 62.5% of all reported cases. The US reported 6 828 301 cases and 201 348 deaths. Only 4.5% of the reported cases and 3.5% of the deaths are on the African continent and we are over the peak.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 30 April –17 September
| Region/Country | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths28 May | Deaths25 June | Deaths30 July | Deaths/27 Aug | Deaths/17 Sep |
| China | 4 633 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
| Europe | 131 603 | 165 662 | 179 129 | 184 792 | 186 461 | 191 142 |
| Africa | 1 577 | 3 663 | 8 856 | 19 649 | 28 566 | 32 992 |
| North America[1] | 64 665 | 108 872 | 132 766 | 162 757 | 192 747 | 210 541 |
| Rest of the World | 25 805 | 74 601 | 159 901 | 297 375 | 417 268 | 505 786 |
| Total | 228 263 | 357 432 | 485 294 | 670 207 | 829 676 | 945 095 |
Source: worldometers.info
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 995 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 66.6% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 1 363 013 cases and 32 992 deaths. There are only 736 510 cases reported in the SADC region and 17 381 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 88.7% of the cases and 90.4% of the number of deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 25 June – 17 September 2020
| SADC country | Cases25 Jun | Cases30 Jul | Cases27 Aug | Cases17 Sep | Deaths25 Jun | Deaths30 Jul | Deaths27 Aug | Deaths17 Sep |
| South Africa | 111 796 | 471 123 | 615 701 | 653 444 | 2 205 | 7 497 | 13 502 | 15 705 |
| Madagascar | 1 787 | 10 317 | 14 554 | 15 871 | 16 | 99 | 181 | 215 |
| Zambia | 1 489 | 5 249 | 11 376 | 13 887 | 18 | 146 | 282 | 326 |
| DRC | 6 213 | 8 931 | 9 912 | 10 414 | 142 | 210 | 254 | 267 |
| Namibia | 90 | 1 986 | 6 431 | 9 964 | – | 9 | 59 | 108 |
| Zimbabwe | 530 | 2 879 | 6 251 | 7 598 | 6 | 41 | 179 | 224 |
| Malawi | 941 | 3 738 | 5 474 | 5 704 | 11 | 103 | 173 | 178 |
| Eswatini | 690 | 2 551 | 4 387 | 5 155 | 7 | 40 | 88 | 101 |
| Mozambique | 762 | 1 748 | 3 590 | 5 994 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 39 |
| Angola | 197 | 812 | 2 332 | 3 675 | 10 | 33 | 103 | 143 |
| Botswana | 92 | 804 | 1 633 | 2 463 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| Lesotho | 17 | 576 | 1 051 | 1 327 | – | 13 | 31 | 33 |
| Tanzania | 509 | 509 | 509 | 509 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Mauritius | 341 | 344 | 348 | 365 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Seychelles | 11 | 114 | 136 | 140 | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 125 465 | 511 681 | 683 685 | 736 510 | 2 452 | 8 235 | 14 910 | 17 381 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend for 27 weeks.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of April 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For the declining trend continued especially with the number of deaths.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
[1] North America is Canada and the US
From the data which is available one can see that we entered this week in a strong declining trend. There is no third wave coming yet. Which countries are the worst affected countries according to deaths and recorded cases? Peru has replaced Belgium on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Qatar with the number of cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Qatar example demonstrate.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
| Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
| Peru | 939 | |
| Belgium | 856 | |
| Spain | 647 | |
| Bolivia | 639 | |
| Chile | 630 | |
| Qatar | 74 | 43 610 |
| Bahrain | 36 469 | |
| Panama | 23 901 | |
| Chile | 22 938 | |
| Kuwait | 22 644 | |
| South Africa | 264 | 10 989 |
| Germany | 113 | 3 183 |
| Namibia | 42 | 3 907 |
Source: Worldometers
What is the trend in the Namibian reported cases of Covid-19? We can firmly establish already a turning point after 23 August and a strong declining trend is visible from the 3 day moving average. To extend the state of emergency was thus not necessary.
Graph 3: The Namibian Covid-19 cases
Source: Worldometers
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 4: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Tuesday at 2408, a rise of 0.2%. Has a new turning point arrived?
Table 5: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | -5.94% | -32.77% |
| Gold | -2.94% | 30.03% |
| Uranium | -7.23% | 17.54% |
| Copper | 3.10% | 18.01% |
| Zinc | 0.26% | 6.92% |
| Losers | ||
| Lead | -4.48% | -9.23% |
Source: Trading economics. 17 September 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point seventeen weeks ago in the past two weeks prices weakened again coupled with the nervousness in the international stock markets. Oil prices declined by -5.94 since the 10th of September and the Baltic Dry Index (benchmark of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea) declined -19.84% in the past month, signalling that the recovery in the world economy has lost momentum. The exchange rate strengthened slightly this week. The N$ is currently trading 16.42 to the US Dollar and 19.30 to the Euro.
To restart the Namibian economy past COVID 19, we need foreign direct investment. Investors look also at tax policy and Namibia must be competitive in the region regarding tax policy, especially corporate tax.
Table 6: Corporate tax rates – Namibia is not an attractive destination
| Country or region | Corporate tax |
| Namibia | 32% |
| Africa average | 28.45% |
| South Africa | 28% |
| Global average | 24.18% |
| Botswana | 22% |
| Botswana (Manufacturing) | 15% |
Source: Trading Economics
To restart the economy Namibia should reduce its corporate tax rate to 28% and introduce a different tax rate for small and medium enterprises at 18%.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
17 September 2020