2020/29 Coronavirus and the World Economy

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Coronavirus and the World Economy

The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 10 663 cases and South Africa 665 188. The latest cases and deaths are the following:

Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 30 April –24 September

Region/CountryCases30 AprCases28 MayCases25 JuneCases30 JulyCases27 AugCases24 Sep
China82 86282 99583 44984 16585 00485 314
Europe1 219 2781 509 0131 647 9921 866 6092 214 4003 218 401
Africa36 703121 077329 888874 8041 204 1341 397 801
North America1 116 1691 833 3222 564 9504 683 5076 126 7827 287 893
Rest of the World766 5722 243 6964 916 8849 678 84114 705 42120 147 699
Total3 221 5845 790 1039 543 163 17.18824 335 74132 137 108

Source: worldometers.info

From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 62.7% of all reported cases. The US reported 7 140 137 cases and 206 598 deaths. Only 4.3% of the reported cases and 3.5% of the deaths are on the African continent and we are over the peak. 

Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 30 April –24 September

Region/CountryDeaths30 AprDeaths28 MayDeaths25 JuneDeaths30 JulyDeaths/27 Aug Deaths/24 Sep
China4 6334 6344 6344 6344 6344 634
Europe131 603165 662179 129184 792186 461193 142
Africa1 5773 6638 85619 64928 56633 942
North America[1]64 665108 872132 766162 757192 747215 841
Rest of the World25 80574 601159 901297 375417 268555 159
Total228 263357 432485 294670 207829 676982 718

Source: worldometers.info

[1] North America is Canada and the US

If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 1 035 000 in a weeks’ time, for the first over one million. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 62.7% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World. 

The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 1 397 801 cases and 33 942 deaths. There are only 752 484 cases reported in the SADC region and 17 954 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 88.4% of the cases and 90.3% of the number of deaths.

Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 25 June – 24 September 2020

SADC countryCases25 JunCases30 JulCases27 AugCases24 SepDeaths25 JunDeaths30 JulDeaths27 AugDeaths24 Sep
South Africa111 796471 123615 701665 1182 2057 49713 50216 206
Madagascar1 78710 31714 55416 1911699181227
Zambia1 4895 24911 37614 44318146282332
Namibia901 9866 43110 663–959117
DRC6 2138 9319 91210 537142210254271
Zimbabwe5302 8796 2517 725641179227
Mozambique7621 7483 5907 2625112149
Malawi9413 7385 4745 74611103173179
Eswatini6902 5514 3875 34374088108
Angola1978122 3324 3631033103159
Botswana928041 6332 56712613
Lesotho175761 0511 507–133135
Tanzania50950950950921212121
Mauritius34134434836710101010
Seychelles11114136143––––
Total125 465511 681683 685752 4842 4528 23514 91017 954

Source: Worldometers.info

Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend for 28 weeks. 

Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths

The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of April 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For the declining trend continued especially with the number of deaths.

Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world

Source: Compiled from Worldometers data

From the data which is available one can see that we entered this week in a ‘makeer die pas’ trend. There might be a third wave coming regarding the number of deaths, cases declined further. Which countries are the worst affected countries according to deaths and recorded cases? Peru has replaced Belgium on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Qatar with the number of cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Qatar example demonstrate.

Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases

CountryDeaths/1M pop.Total cases/1M pop.
Peru964 
Belgium858 
Spain664 
Bolivia660 
Brazil653 
Qatar7644 226
Bahrain 39 087
Panama 24 939
Kuwait 23 769
Peru 23 663
South Africa27211 183
Germany1133 330
Namibia464 179

Source: Worldometers

What is the trend in the Namibian reported cases of Covid-19? We can firmly establish already a turning point after 23 August and a strong declining trend is visible from the 3 day moving average. 

Graph 3: The Namibian Covid-19 cases

Source: Worldometers

The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries. 

Graph 4: MSCI World Index

The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Wednesday at 2306, a decline of -4.0%. Has a new turning point arrived? Stock markets are nervous due to a rise in US unemployment and an increase in COVID 19 cases in Spain, France and the Netherlands.

Table 5: Selected international commodity prices

CommodityMonthlyYearly
Winners for Namibia  
Energy: Brent oil-9.07%-29.19%
Gold-2.90%24.49%
Uranium-7.38%17.12%
Copper1.31%14.62%
Zinc-4.52%3.36%
Losers  
Lead-5.24%-11.70%

 Source: Trading economics. 24 September 2020 

The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point seventeen weeks ago in the past three weeks prices weakened again coupled with the nervousness in the international stock markets. Oil prices declined by -9.07% for the month and only copper prices hold on their momentum. The exchange rate weakened slightly this week. The N$ is currently trading 17.18 to the US Dollar and 20.02 to the Euro.

Compiled by: Rainer Ritter 

24 September 2020