Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 11 265 cases and South Africa 674 339. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 30 April –01 October
| Region/Country | Cases30 Apr | Cases28 May | Cases25 June | Cases30 July | Cases27 Aug | Cases1 Oct |
| China | 82 862 | 82 995 | 83 449 | 84 165 | 85 004 | 85 414 |
| Europe | 1 219 278 | 1 509 013 | 1 647 992 | 1 866 609 | 2 214 400 | 3 518 217 |
| Africa | 36 703 | 121 077 | 329 888 | 874 804 | 1 204 134 | 1 480 015 |
| North America | 1 116 169 | 1 833 322 | 2 564 950 | 4 683 507 | 6 126 782 | 7 611 782 |
| Rest of the World | 766 572 | 2 243 696 | 4 916 884 | 9 678 841 | 14 705 421 | 21 529 765 |
| Total | 3 221 584 | 5 790 103 | 9 543 163 | 17.188 | 24 335 741 | 34 225 193 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 62.9% of all reported cases. The US reported 7 453 024 cases and 211 833 deaths. Only 4.3% of the reported cases and 3.5% of the deaths are on the African continent and we are over the peak.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 30 April –01 October
| Region/Country | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths28 May | Deaths25 June | Deaths30 July | Deaths/27 Aug | Deaths/1 Oct |
| China | 4 633 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
| Europe | 131 603 | 165 662 | 179 129 | 184 792 | 186 461 | 196 897 |
| Africa | 1 577 | 3 663 | 8 856 | 19 649 | 28 566 | 35 737 |
| North America[1] | 64 665 | 108 872 | 132 766 | 162 757 | 192 747 | 221 130 |
| Rest of the World | 25 805 | 74 601 | 159 901 | 297 375 | 417 268 | 561 432 |
| Total | 228 263 | 357 432 | 485 294 | 670 207 | 829 676 | 1 019 830 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 1 060 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 66.1% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 1 480 015 cases and 35 737 deaths. There are only 766 096 cases reported in the SADC region and 18 534 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 88.0% of the cases and 90.3% of the number of deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 25 June – 01 October 2020
| SADC country | Cases25 Jun | Cases30 Jul | Cases27 Aug | Cases01 Oct | Deaths25 Jun | Deaths30 Jul | Deaths27 Aug | Deaths01 Oct |
| South Africa | 111 796 | 471 123 | 615 701 | 674 339 | 2 205 | 7 497 | 13 502 | 16 734 |
| Madagascar | 1 787 | 10 317 | 14 554 | 16 454 | 16 | 99 | 181 | 232 |
| Zambia | 1 489 | 5 249 | 11 376 | 14 759 | 18 | 146 | 282 | 332 |
| Namibia | 90 | 1 986 | 6 431 | 11 265 | – | 9 | 59 | 121 |
| DRC | 6 213 | 8 931 | 9 912 | 10 685 | 142 | 210 | 254 | 272 |
| Zimbabwe | 530 | 2 879 | 6 251 | 7 838 | 6 | 41 | 179 | 228 |
| Mozambique | 762 | 1 748 | 3 590 | 8 728 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 61 |
| Malawi | 941 | 3 738 | 5 474 | 5 773 | 11 | 103 | 173 | 179 |
| Eswatini | 690 | 2 551 | 4 387 | 5 482 | 7 | 40 | 88 | 109 |
| Angola | 197 | 812 | 2 332 | 4 972 | 10 | 33 | 103 | 183 |
| Botswana | 92 | 804 | 1 633 | 3 172 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| Lesotho | 17 | 576 | 1 051 | 1 595 | – | 13 | 31 | 36 |
| Tanzania | 509 | 509 | 509 | 509 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Mauritius | 341 | 344 | 348 | 381 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Seychelles | 11 | 114 | 136 | 144 | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 125 465 | 511 681 | 683 685 | 766 096 | 2 452 | 8 235 | 14 910 | 18 534 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend for 29 weeks.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of April 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For the declining trend continued especially with the number of deaths.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
From the data which is available one can see that the declining trend continuous. Which countries are the worst affected countries according to deaths and recorded cases? Peru has replaced Belgium on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Qatar with the number of cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Qatar example demonstrate.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
| Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
| Peru | 981 | |
| Belgium | 863 | |
| Spain | 680 | |
| Bolivia | 680 | |
| Brazil | 676 | |
| Qatar | 76 | 44 860 |
| Bahrain | 41 305 | |
| Israel | 26 978 | |
| Panama | 25 994 | |
| Peru | 24 628 | |
| South Africa | 281 | 11 335 |
| Germany | 114 | 3 496 |
| Namibia | 47 | 4 414 |
Source: Worldometers
What is the trend in the Namibian reported cases of Covid-19? We can firmly establish already a turning point after 23 August and a strong declining trend is visible from the 3 day moving average.
Graph 3: The Namibian Covid-19 cases
Source: Worldometers
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 4: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Wednesday at 2367, a decline of -1.5%. Has a new turning point arrived? Stock markets are nervous and there is no clear trend yet that the world economy is recovering strongly.
Table 5: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | -8.87% | -29.81% |
| Gold | -1.64% | 27.45% |
| Uranium | -3.39% | 17.22% |
| Copper | 1.31% | 14.62% |
| Zinc | -6.66% | 1.81% |
| Losers | ||
| Lead | -7.45% | -13.84% |
Source: Trading economics. 01 October 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point seventeen weeks ago in the past three weeks prices weakened again coupled with the nervousness in the international stock markets. Oil prices declined by -8.87% for the month and only copper prices hold on their momentum. The exchange rate strengthened slightly this week and the N$ is currently trading 16.68 to the US Dollar and 19.59 to the Euro.
The Namibia Statistics Agency announced the quarterly growth for the second quarter of 2020, which was -11.1% and since the second quarter of 2016 Namibia is in a prolonged recession with an average quarterly growth of -1.37%.
Graph 5: Quarterly growth in real GDP
Covid-19 had a massive impact on the Namibian economy which was already struggling for four years due to economic mismanagement, drought and corruption.
Disposable income is under pressure and the quarterly sales of new is a good indication that the economy has not reached a turning point yet.
Graph 6: Quarterly new vehicle sales (number) since 2010
Source: Bank of Namibia
Vehicle sales in the second quarter of 2020 were 1 287 in comparison to the 2 229 vehicle sales in the first quarter. New vehicle sales peaked in the fourth quarter of 2014 with 5 915 new vehicles.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
01 October 2020