Namibia Logistics Association

2020/34 Coronavirus and the World Economy

Coronavirus and the World Economy

The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 12 806 cases and South Africa 719 714. The latest cases and deaths are the following:

Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 28 May –29 October

Region/CountryCases28 MayCases25 JuneCases30 JulyCases27 AugCases01 OctCases29 Oct
China82 99583 44984 16585 00485 41485 915
Europe1 509 0131 647 9921 866 6092 214 4003 518 2177 138 508
Africa121 077329 888874 8041 204 1341 480 0151 732 405
North America1 833 3222 564 9504 683 5076 126 7827 611 7829 362 936
Rest of the World2 243 6964 916 8849 678 841 14.70521 529 76526 634 429
Total5 790 1039 543 163 17.188 24.33534 225 19344 954 193

Source: worldometers.info

From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 59.2% of all reported cases. There is a second wave in Europe currently with subsequent lock-downs announced. The US reported 9 136 416 cases and 233 337 deaths. Only 3.9% of the reported cases and 3.6% of the deaths are on the African continent. 

Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 28 May –29 October

Region/CountryDeaths28 MayDeaths25 JuneDeaths30 JulyDeaths27 AugDeaths/01 Oct Deaths/29 Oct
China4 6344 6344 6344 6344 6344 634
Europe165 662179 129184 792186 461196 461223 689
Africa3 6638 85619 64928 56635 73742 674
North America[1]108 872132 766162 757192 747221 130243 379
Rest of the World74 601159 901297 375417 268561 432667 209
Total357 432485 294670 207829 6761 019 8301 181 585

Source: worldometers.info

[1] North America is Canada and the US

If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 1 232 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 64.1% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World. 

The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 1 732 405 cases and 42 674 deaths. There are only 828 954 cases reported in the SADC region and 21 144 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 86.8% of the cases and 90.4% of the number of deaths.

 Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 30 July – 29 October 2020

SADC countryCases30 JulCases27 AugCases01 OctCases29 OctDeaths30 JulDeaths27 AugDeaths01 OctDeaths29 Oct
South Africa471 123615 701674 339719 7147 49713 50216 73419 111
Madagascar10 31714 55416 45416 96899181232244
Zambia5 24911 37615 75916 325146282282348
Namibia1 9866 43211 26512 806959121133
Mozambique1 7483 5908 72812 41511216191
DRC8 9319 91210 68511 211210254272305
Angola8122 3325 72510 07433103183275
Zimbabwe2 8796 2517 9198 32041179228242
Botswana8041 6333 1726 283261621
Malawi3 7385 4745 7735 904103173179184
Eswatini2 5514 3875 6175 8864088109116
Lesotho5761 0511 5951 94713313643
Tanzania50950950950921212121
Mauritius34434838143910101010
Seychelles114136144153
Total511 681683 685766 096828 9548 23514 91018 53421 144

Source: Worldometers.info

Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend which has come to an end in week 32. 

Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths

The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of April 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For the second week we see an increase in the number of cases and deaths. The strong increase in the number of cases is driven by Europe. 

Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world

Source: Compiled from Worldometers data

From the data which is available one can see that the declining trend in the number of deaths continuous with a slight increase in the number of cases. Peru has replaced Belgium on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Qatar has the most cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Qatar example demonstrate.

Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases

CountryDeaths/1M pop.Total cases/1M pop.
Peru1 036 
Belgium962 
Spain758 
Bolivia744 
Brazil744 
Qatar8247 065
Bahrain 47 051
Israel 34 007
Panama 30 264
Kuwait 29 053
South Africa32112 086
Germany1245 829
Namibia525 011

The trend in the Namibian reported number of cases of Covid-19 had a turning point after 23 August and a strong declining trend is visible from the 3 day moving average with a sideways movement in the last week. 

Graph 3: The Namibian Covid-19 cases

Source: Worldometers

The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries. 

Graph 4: MSCI World Index

The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Wednesday at 2307, a decrease of -4.0%. The slight decline in stock markets is also reflected by the monthly decline of -24.81% in the Baltic Dry Index (The Baltic Dry Index provides a benchmark for the price of moving major raw materials by sea). The second wave of Covid-19 cases in Europe makes investors nervous. 

Table 5: Selected international commodity prices

CommodityMonthlyYearly
Winners for Namibia  
Energy: Brent oil-8.23%-41.15%
Gold-0.97%22.18%
Uranium-1.67%18.31%
Copper1.18%8.36%
Zinc4.61%8.87%
Losers  
Lead-2.11%-6.74%

 Source: Trading economics. 29 October 2020 

The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point seventeen weeks ago in the past week prices declined again. Oil prices decreased in the past week and for the month by -8.23%. The exchange rate strengthened slightly this week and the N$ is currently trading 16.36 to the US Dollar and 19.23 to the Euro. Financial markets are nervous due to the rise of COVID-19 cases in Europe, profit data of listed companies, Islamic terrorism in France and the US election. 

Compiled by: Rainer Ritter                   

29 October 2020