Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 12 806 cases and South Africa 719 714. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 28 May –29 October
Region/Country | Cases28 May | Cases25 June | Cases30 July | Cases27 Aug | Cases01 Oct | Cases29 Oct |
China | 82 995 | 83 449 | 84 165 | 85 004 | 85 414 | 85 915 |
Europe | 1 509 013 | 1 647 992 | 1 866 609 | 2 214 400 | 3 518 217 | 7 138 508 |
Africa | 121 077 | 329 888 | 874 804 | 1 204 134 | 1 480 015 | 1 732 405 |
North America | 1 833 322 | 2 564 950 | 4 683 507 | 6 126 782 | 7 611 782 | 9 362 936 |
Rest of the World | 2 243 696 | 4 916 884 | 9 678 841 | 14.705 | 21 529 765 | 26 634 429 |
Total | 5 790 103 | 9 543 163 | 17.188 | 24.335 | 34 225 193 | 44 954 193 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 59.2% of all reported cases. There is a second wave in Europe currently with subsequent lock-downs announced. The US reported 9 136 416 cases and 233 337 deaths. Only 3.9% of the reported cases and 3.6% of the deaths are on the African continent.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 28 May –29 October
Region/Country | Deaths28 May | Deaths25 June | Deaths30 July | Deaths27 Aug | Deaths/01 Oct | Deaths/29 Oct |
China | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
Europe | 165 662 | 179 129 | 184 792 | 186 461 | 196 461 | 223 689 |
Africa | 3 663 | 8 856 | 19 649 | 28 566 | 35 737 | 42 674 |
North America[1] | 108 872 | 132 766 | 162 757 | 192 747 | 221 130 | 243 379 |
Rest of the World | 74 601 | 159 901 | 297 375 | 417 268 | 561 432 | 667 209 |
Total | 357 432 | 485 294 | 670 207 | 829 676 | 1 019 830 | 1 181 585 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 1 232 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 64.1% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 1 732 405 cases and 42 674 deaths. There are only 828 954 cases reported in the SADC region and 21 144 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 86.8% of the cases and 90.4% of the number of deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 30 July – 29 October 2020
SADC country | Cases30 Jul | Cases27 Aug | Cases01 Oct | Cases29 Oct | Deaths30 Jul | Deaths27 Aug | Deaths01 Oct | Deaths29 Oct |
South Africa | 471 123 | 615 701 | 674 339 | 719 714 | 7 497 | 13 502 | 16 734 | 19 111 |
Madagascar | 10 317 | 14 554 | 16 454 | 16 968 | 99 | 181 | 232 | 244 |
Zambia | 5 249 | 11 376 | 15 759 | 16 325 | 146 | 282 | 282 | 348 |
Namibia | 1 986 | 6 432 | 11 265 | 12 806 | 9 | 59 | 121 | 133 |
Mozambique | 1 748 | 3 590 | 8 728 | 12 415 | 11 | 21 | 61 | 91 |
DRC | 8 931 | 9 912 | 10 685 | 11 211 | 210 | 254 | 272 | 305 |
Angola | 812 | 2 332 | 5 725 | 10 074 | 33 | 103 | 183 | 275 |
Zimbabwe | 2 879 | 6 251 | 7 919 | 8 320 | 41 | 179 | 228 | 242 |
Botswana | 804 | 1 633 | 3 172 | 6 283 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 21 |
Malawi | 3 738 | 5 474 | 5 773 | 5 904 | 103 | 173 | 179 | 184 |
Eswatini | 2 551 | 4 387 | 5 617 | 5 886 | 40 | 88 | 109 | 116 |
Lesotho | 576 | 1 051 | 1 595 | 1 947 | 13 | 31 | 36 | 43 |
Tanzania | 509 | 509 | 509 | 509 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
Mauritius | 344 | 348 | 381 | 439 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Seychelles | 114 | 136 | 144 | 153 | – | – | – | – |
Total | 511 681 | 683 685 | 766 096 | 828 954 | 8 235 | 14 910 | 18 534 | 21 144 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend which has come to an end in week 32.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of April 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For the second week we see an increase in the number of cases and deaths. The strong increase in the number of cases is driven by Europe.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
From the data which is available one can see that the declining trend in the number of deaths continuous with a slight increase in the number of cases. Peru has replaced Belgium on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Qatar has the most cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Qatar example demonstrate.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
Peru | 1 036 | |
Belgium | 962 | |
Spain | 758 | |
Bolivia | 744 | |
Brazil | 744 | |
Qatar | 82 | 47 065 |
Bahrain | 47 051 | |
Israel | 34 007 | |
Panama | 30 264 | |
Kuwait | 29 053 | |
South Africa | 321 | 12 086 |
Germany | 124 | 5 829 |
Namibia | 52 | 5 011 |
The trend in the Namibian reported number of cases of Covid-19 had a turning point after 23 August and a strong declining trend is visible from the 3 day moving average with a sideways movement in the last week.
Graph 3: The Namibian Covid-19 cases
Source: Worldometers
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 4: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Wednesday at 2307, a decrease of -4.0%. The slight decline in stock markets is also reflected by the monthly decline of -24.81% in the Baltic Dry Index (The Baltic Dry Index provides a benchmark for the price of moving major raw materials by sea). The second wave of Covid-19 cases in Europe makes investors nervous.
Table 5: Selected international commodity prices
Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
Winners for Namibia | ||
Energy: Brent oil | -8.23% | -41.15% |
Gold | -0.97% | 22.18% |
Uranium | -1.67% | 18.31% |
Copper | 1.18% | 8.36% |
Zinc | 4.61% | 8.87% |
Losers | ||
Lead | -2.11% | -6.74% |
Source: Trading economics. 29 October 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point seventeen weeks ago in the past week prices declined again. Oil prices decreased in the past week and for the month by -8.23%. The exchange rate strengthened slightly this week and the N$ is currently trading 16.36 to the US Dollar and 19.23 to the Euro. Financial markets are nervous due to the rise of COVID-19 cases in Europe, profit data of listed companies, Islamic terrorism in France and the US election.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
29 October 2020