Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 13 046 cases and South Africa 730 548. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 25 June –05 November
| Region/Country | Cases25 June | Cases30 July | Cases27 Aug | Cases01 Oct | Cases29 Oct | Cases05 Nov |
| China | 83 449 | 84 165 | 85 004 | 85 414 | 85 915 | 86 115 |
| Europe | 1 647 992 | 1 866 609 | 2 214 400 | 3 518 217 | 7 138 508 | 8 772 051 |
| Africa | 329 888 | 874 804 | 1 204 134 | 1 480 015 | 1 732 405 | 1 818 193 |
| North America | 2 564 950 | 4 683 507 | 6 126 782 | 7 611 782 | 9 362 936 | 10 049 058 |
| Rest of the World | 4 916 884 | 9 678 841 | 14. 705 | 21. 529 | 26 634 429 | 27 696 596 |
| Total | 9 543 163 | 17. 188 | 24. 335 | 34. 225 | 44 954 193 | 48 422 013 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 57.2% of all reported cases. There is a second wave in Europe currently with subsequent lock-downs announced. The US reported 9 801 355 cases and 239 829 deaths. Only 3.8% of the reported cases and 3.6% of the deaths are on the African continent.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 25 June –05 November
| Region/Country | Deaths25 June | Deaths30 July | Deaths27 Aug | Deaths01 Oct | Deaths/29 Oct | Deaths/05 Nov |
| China | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
| Europe | 179 129 | 184 792 | 186 461 | 196 461 | 223 689 | 241 256 |
| Africa | 8 856 | 19 649 | 28 566 | 35 737 | 42 674 | 43 778 |
| North America[1] | 132 766 | 162 757 | 192 747 | 221 130 | 243 379 | 250 160 |
| Rest of the World | 159 901 | 297 375 | 417 268 | 561 432 | 667 209 | 690 958 |
| Total | 485 294 | 670 207 | 829 676 | 1 019 830 | 1 181 585 | 1 230 786 |
Source: worldometers.info
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 1 282 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 63.6% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 1 818 193 cases and 43 778 deaths. There are only 838 054 cases reported in the SADC region and 21 665 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 87.2% of the cases and 90.4% of the number of deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 27 Aug – 05 November 2020
| SADC country | Cases27 Aug | Cases01 Oct | Cases29 Oct | Cases05 Nov | Deaths27 Aug | Deaths01 Oct | Deaths29 Oct | Deaths05 Nov |
| South Africa | 615 701 | 674 339 | 719 714 | 730 548 | 13 502 | 16 734 | 19 111 | 19 585 |
| Madagascar | 14 554 | 16 454 | 16 968 | 17 111 | 181 | 232 | 244 | 244 |
| Zambia | 11 376 | 15 759 | 16 325 | 16 698 | 282 | 282 | 348 | 349 |
| Mozambique | 3 590 | 8 728 | 12 415 | 13 283 | 21 | 61 | 91 | 95 |
| Namibia | 6 432 | 11 265 | 12 806 | 13 046 | 59 | 121 | 133 | 133 |
| Angola | 2 332 | 5 725 | 10 074 | 11 813 | 103 | 183 | 275 | 296 |
| DRC | 9 912 | 10 685 | 11 211 | 11 450 | 254 | 272 | 305 | 315 |
| Zimbabwe | 6 251 | 7 919 | 8 320 | 8 427 | 179 | 228 | 242 | 248 |
| Botswana | 1 633 | 3 172 | 6 283 | 6 642 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 24 |
| Eswatini | 4 387 | 5 617 | 5 886 | 5 955 | 88 | 109 | 116 | 117 |
| Malawi | 5 474 | 5 773 | 5 904 | 5 934 | 173 | 179 | 184 | 184 |
| Lesotho | 1 051 | 1 595 | 1 947 | 1 963 | 31 | 36 | 43 | 44 |
| Tanzania | 509 | 509 | 509 | 509 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Mauritius | 348 | 381 | 439 | 452 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Seychelles | 136 | 144 | 153 | 157 | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 683 685 | 766 096 | 828 954 | 838 054 | 8 235 | 14 910 | 21 144 | 21 665 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend which has come to an end in week 32.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of June 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For the first week we see an decrease in the number of cases and for a third week an increase in the number of deaths. The strong increase in the number of cases is driven by Europe.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
[1] North America is Canada and the US
From the data which is available one can see that the declining trend in the number of cases and deaths continuous. Peru has replaced Belgium on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Bahrain has the most cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Bahrain example demonstrate.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
| Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
| Peru | 1 047 | |
| Belgium | 1 045 | |
| Spain | 815 | |
| Brazil | 756 | |
| Bolivia | 746 | |
| Bahrain | 190 | 48 001 |
| Qatar | 47 500 | |
| Belgium | 39 055 | |
| Czechia | 35 342 | |
| Israel | 34 502 | |
| South Africa | 329 | 12 256 |
| Germany | 131 | 7 122 |
| Namibia | 52 | 5 103 |
The trend in the Namibian reported number of cases of Covid-19 had a turning point after 23 August and a strong declining trend is visible from the 3 day moving average with a strong decline in the last week.
Graph 3: The Namibian Covid-19 cases
Source: Worldometers
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 4: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Wednesday at 2417, an increase of 0.5%. The improvement in stock markets during the last days is the result of the anticipated win of Biden in the US election. However, this positive sentiment is not reflected in the real economy with the monthly decline of -40.90% in the Baltic Dry Index (The Baltic Dry Index provides a benchmark for the price of moving major raw materials by sea).
Table 5: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | -5.32% | -39.18% |
| Gold | 1.72% | 24.94% |
| Uranium | -0.84% | 19.11% |
| Copper | 4.61% | 10.02% |
| Zinc | 11.02% | 12.08% |
| Losers | ||
| Lead | 5.37% | -4.42% |
Source: Trading economics. 05 November 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point seventeen weeks ago in the past week prices improved. Oil prices increased in the past week and for the month by -5.32%. The exchange rate strengthened slightly this week and the N$ is currently trading 15.91 to the US Dollar and 18.68 to the Euro. The strengthening of the Rand is on the back of a win by Biden and an improved trade with China, which is good for commodity prices and thus a stronger Rand.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
05 November 2020