2020/37 Coronavirus and the World Economy

Coronavirus and the World Economy

The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 13 610 cases and South Africa 757 144. The latest cases and deaths are the following:

Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 25 June –19 November

Region/CountryCases25 JuneCases30 JulyCases27 AugCases01 OctCases29 OctCases19 Nov
China83 44984 16585 00485 41485 91586 381
Europe1 647 9921 866 6092 214 4003 518 2177 138 50811 999 882
Africa329 888874 8041 204 1341 480 0151 732 4051 992 877
North America2 564 9504 683 5076 126 7827 611 7829 362 93612 184 972
Rest of the World4 916 8849 678 84114. 705  21. 52926 634 42930 355 635
Total9 543 16317. 188  24. 335 34. 22544 954 19356 619 747

Source: worldometers.info

From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 53.6% of all reported cases. There is a second wave in Europe currently with subsequent restrictions announced. The US reported 11 873 863 cases and 256 262 deaths. Only 3.5% of the reported cases and 3.5% of the deaths are on the African continent. 

Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 25 June –19 November

Region/CountryDeaths25 JuneDeaths30 JulyDeaths27 AugDeaths01 OctDeaths/29 Oct Deaths/19 Nov
China4 6344 6344 6344 6344 6344 634
Europe179 129184 792186 461196 461223 689292 024
Africa8 85619 64928 56635 73742 67448 697
North America[1]132 766162 757192 747221 130243 379267 448
Rest of the World159 901297 375417 268561 432667 209743 072
Total485 294670 207829 6761 019 8301 181 5851 355 875

Source: worldometers.info

[1] North America is Canada and the US

If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 1 420 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 62.3% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World. 

The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 1 999 877 cases and 48 697 deaths. There are only 879 261 cases reported in the SADC region and 22 746 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 86.1% of the cases and 90.4% of the number of deaths.

 Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 27 Aug – 19 November 2020

SADC countryCases27 AugCases01 OctCases29 OctCases19 NovDeaths27 AugDeaths01 OctDeaths29 OctDeaths19 Nov
South Africa615 701674 339719 714757 14413 50216 73419 11120 556
Madagascar14 55416 45416 96817 310181232244250
Zambia11 37615 75916 32517 280282282348356
Mozambique3 5908 72812 41514 629216191119
Namibia6 43211 26512 25313 61059121133140
Angola2 3325 72510 07413 922103183275332
DRC9 91210 68511 21111 918254272305323
Zimbabwe6 2517 9198 3208 981179228242261
Botswana1 6333 1726 2839 1036162130
Eswatini4 3875 6175 8866 14488109116119
Malawi5 4745 7735 9045 999173179184185
Lesotho1 0511 5952 0262 05831364344
Tanzania50950950950921212121
Mauritius34838143949410101010
Seychelles136144153160
Total683 685766 096828 954879 2618 23514 91021 14422 746

Source: Worldometers.info

Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend which has come to an end in week 32. 

Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths

The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of June 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For five weeks we can see an increasing trend in the number of cases and deaths, mainly in Europe. 

Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world

Source: Compiled from Worldometers data

From the data which is available one can see that the declining trend in the number of deaths continuous with a slight increase in the number of cases. Belgium replaced Peru on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Bahrain has the most cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Bahrain example demonstrate.

Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases

CountryDeaths/1M pop.Total cases/1M pop.
Belgium1 294 
Peru1 068 
Spain899 
Argentina801 
Brazil786 
Bahrain19649 422
Qatar 48 593
Belgium 47 014
Czechia 44 350
USA 35 792
South Africa34512 705
Germany16110 187
Namibia525 197

The trend in the Namibian reported number of cases of Covid-19 had a turning point after 23 August and a strong declining trend is visible from the 3 day moving average with a sideways movement at an average of 38 for the last 3 weeks. 

Graph 3: The Namibian Covid-19 cases

Source: Worldometers

The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries. 

Graph 4: MSCI World Index

The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Tuesday at 2558, an increase of 6.5%. The improvement in stock markets during the last days is the result of the win of Biden in the US election and the announcement of a vaccine by Pfizer. However, this positive sentiment is not yet reflected in the real economy with the monthly decline of -20.87% in the Baltic Dry Index (The Baltic Dry Index provides a benchmark for the price of moving major raw materials by sea).  

Table 5: Selected international commodity prices

CommodityMonthlyYearly
Winners for Namibia  
Energy: Brent oil2.53%-33.35%
Gold-2.26%21.93%
Uranium-1.02%16.70%
Copper1.58%13.11%
Zinc7.40%18.17%
Lead11.15%0.94%

 Source: Trading economics. 19 November 2020 

The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point in June. Oil prices increased in the past week and for the month by 2.53%. The exchange rate strengthened further this week and the N$ is currently trading 15.51 to the US Dollar and 18.38 to the Euro. The strengthening of the Rand is on the back of a win by Biden and an improved trade with China, which is good for commodity prices and thus a stronger Rand. 

Compiled by: Rainer Ritter                   

19 November 2020