Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 13 610 cases and South Africa 757 144. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 25 June –19 November
| Region/Country | Cases25 June | Cases30 July | Cases27 Aug | Cases01 Oct | Cases29 Oct | Cases19 Nov |
| China | 83 449 | 84 165 | 85 004 | 85 414 | 85 915 | 86 381 |
| Europe | 1 647 992 | 1 866 609 | 2 214 400 | 3 518 217 | 7 138 508 | 11 999 882 |
| Africa | 329 888 | 874 804 | 1 204 134 | 1 480 015 | 1 732 405 | 1 992 877 |
| North America | 2 564 950 | 4 683 507 | 6 126 782 | 7 611 782 | 9 362 936 | 12 184 972 |
| Rest of the World | 4 916 884 | 9 678 841 | 14. 705 | 21. 529 | 26 634 429 | 30 355 635 |
| Total | 9 543 163 | 17. 188 | 24. 335 | 34. 225 | 44 954 193 | 56 619 747 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 53.6% of all reported cases. There is a second wave in Europe currently with subsequent restrictions announced. The US reported 11 873 863 cases and 256 262 deaths. Only 3.5% of the reported cases and 3.5% of the deaths are on the African continent.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 25 June –19 November
| Region/Country | Deaths25 June | Deaths30 July | Deaths27 Aug | Deaths01 Oct | Deaths/29 Oct | Deaths/19 Nov |
| China | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
| Europe | 179 129 | 184 792 | 186 461 | 196 461 | 223 689 | 292 024 |
| Africa | 8 856 | 19 649 | 28 566 | 35 737 | 42 674 | 48 697 |
| North America[1] | 132 766 | 162 757 | 192 747 | 221 130 | 243 379 | 267 448 |
| Rest of the World | 159 901 | 297 375 | 417 268 | 561 432 | 667 209 | 743 072 |
| Total | 485 294 | 670 207 | 829 676 | 1 019 830 | 1 181 585 | 1 355 875 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 1 420 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 62.3% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 1 999 877 cases and 48 697 deaths. There are only 879 261 cases reported in the SADC region and 22 746 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 86.1% of the cases and 90.4% of the number of deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 27 Aug – 19 November 2020
| SADC country | Cases27 Aug | Cases01 Oct | Cases29 Oct | Cases19 Nov | Deaths27 Aug | Deaths01 Oct | Deaths29 Oct | Deaths19 Nov |
| South Africa | 615 701 | 674 339 | 719 714 | 757 144 | 13 502 | 16 734 | 19 111 | 20 556 |
| Madagascar | 14 554 | 16 454 | 16 968 | 17 310 | 181 | 232 | 244 | 250 |
| Zambia | 11 376 | 15 759 | 16 325 | 17 280 | 282 | 282 | 348 | 356 |
| Mozambique | 3 590 | 8 728 | 12 415 | 14 629 | 21 | 61 | 91 | 119 |
| Namibia | 6 432 | 11 265 | 12 253 | 13 610 | 59 | 121 | 133 | 140 |
| Angola | 2 332 | 5 725 | 10 074 | 13 922 | 103 | 183 | 275 | 332 |
| DRC | 9 912 | 10 685 | 11 211 | 11 918 | 254 | 272 | 305 | 323 |
| Zimbabwe | 6 251 | 7 919 | 8 320 | 8 981 | 179 | 228 | 242 | 261 |
| Botswana | 1 633 | 3 172 | 6 283 | 9 103 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 30 |
| Eswatini | 4 387 | 5 617 | 5 886 | 6 144 | 88 | 109 | 116 | 119 |
| Malawi | 5 474 | 5 773 | 5 904 | 5 999 | 173 | 179 | 184 | 185 |
| Lesotho | 1 051 | 1 595 | 2 026 | 2 058 | 31 | 36 | 43 | 44 |
| Tanzania | 509 | 509 | 509 | 509 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Mauritius | 348 | 381 | 439 | 494 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Seychelles | 136 | 144 | 153 | 160 | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 683 685 | 766 096 | 828 954 | 879 261 | 8 235 | 14 910 | 21 144 | 22 746 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend which has come to an end in week 32.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of June 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For five weeks we can see an increasing trend in the number of cases and deaths, mainly in Europe.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
From the data which is available one can see that the declining trend in the number of deaths continuous with a slight increase in the number of cases. Belgium replaced Peru on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Bahrain has the most cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Bahrain example demonstrate.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
| Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
| Belgium | 1 294 | |
| Peru | 1 068 | |
| Spain | 899 | |
| Argentina | 801 | |
| Brazil | 786 | |
| Bahrain | 196 | 49 422 |
| Qatar | 48 593 | |
| Belgium | 47 014 | |
| Czechia | 44 350 | |
| USA | 35 792 | |
| South Africa | 345 | 12 705 |
| Germany | 161 | 10 187 |
| Namibia | 52 | 5 197 |
The trend in the Namibian reported number of cases of Covid-19 had a turning point after 23 August and a strong declining trend is visible from the 3 day moving average with a sideways movement at an average of 38 for the last 3 weeks.
Graph 3: The Namibian Covid-19 cases
Source: Worldometers
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 4: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Tuesday at 2558, an increase of 6.5%. The improvement in stock markets during the last days is the result of the win of Biden in the US election and the announcement of a vaccine by Pfizer. However, this positive sentiment is not yet reflected in the real economy with the monthly decline of -20.87% in the Baltic Dry Index (The Baltic Dry Index provides a benchmark for the price of moving major raw materials by sea).
Table 5: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | 2.53% | -33.35% |
| Gold | -2.26% | 21.93% |
| Uranium | -1.02% | 16.70% |
| Copper | 1.58% | 13.11% |
| Zinc | 7.40% | 18.17% |
| Lead | 11.15% | 0.94% |
Source: Trading economics. 19 November 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point in June. Oil prices increased in the past week and for the month by 2.53%. The exchange rate strengthened further this week and the N$ is currently trading 15.51 to the US Dollar and 18.38 to the Euro. The strengthening of the Rand is on the back of a win by Biden and an improved trade with China, which is good for commodity prices and thus a stronger Rand.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
19 November 2020