2020/38 Coronavirus and the World Economy

Coronavirus and the World Economy

The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 14 006 cases and South Africa 775 502. The latest cases and deaths are the following:

Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 25 June –26 November

Region/CountryCases25 JuneCases30 JulyCases27 AugCases01 OctCases29 OctCases26 Nov
China83 44984 16585 00485 41485 91586 490
Europe1 647 9921 866 6092 214 4003 518 2177 138 50813 258 997
Africa329 888874 8041 204 1341 480 0151 732 4052 077 681
North America2 564 9504 683 5076 126 7827 611 7829 362 93613 485 428
Rest of the World4 916 8849 678 84114. 705  21. 52926 634 42931 811 361
Total9 543 16317. 188  24. 335 34. 22544 954 19360 719 957

Source: worldometers.info

From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 52.4% of all reported cases. There is a second wave in Europe currently with subsequent restrictions announced. The US reported 13 137 962 cases and 268 219 deaths. Only 3.4% of the reported cases and 3.5% of the deaths are on the African continent. 

Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 25 June –26 November

Region/CountryDeaths25 JuneDeaths30 JulyDeaths27 AugDeaths01 OctDeaths/29 Oct Deaths/26 Nov
China4 6344 6344 6344 6344 6344 634
Europe179 129184 792186 461196 461223 689320 974
Africa8 85619 64928 56635 73742 67450 401
North America[1]132 766162 757192 747221 130243 379279 929
Rest of the World159 901297 375417 268561 432667 209770 885
Total485 294670 207829 6761 019 8301 181 5851 426 823

Source: worldometers.info

[1] North America is Canada and the US

If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 1 500 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 61.8% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World. 

The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 2 077 681 cases and 50 401 deaths. There are only 901 926 cases reported in the SADC region and 23 443 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 86.0% of the cases and 90.4% of the number of deaths.

 Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 27 Aug – 26 November 2020

SADC countryCases27 AugCases01 OctCases29 OctCases26 NovDeaths27 AugDeaths01 OctDeaths29 OctDeaths26 Nov
South Africa615 701674 339719 714775 50213 50216 73419 11121 201
Madagascar14 55416 45416 96817 341181232244257
Zambia11 37615 75916 32517 535282282348356
Mozambique3 5908 72812 41515 302216191128
Angola2 3325 72510 07414 821103183275340
Namibia6 43211 26512 25314 00659121133145
DRC9 91210 68511 21112 365254272305331
Zimbabwe6 2517 9198 3209 508179228242274
Botswana1 6333 1726 2839 9926162131
Eswatini4 3875 6175 8866 27288109116120
Malawi5 4745 7735 9046 018173179184185
Lesotho1 0511 5952 0262 09231364344
Tanzania50950950950921212121
Mauritius34838143949710101010
Seychelles136144153166
Total683 685766 096828 954901 9268 23514 91021 14423 443

Source: Worldometers.info

Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend which has come to an end in week 32. 

Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths

The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of June 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For five weeks we saw an increasing trend, but decreasing in the last week. 

Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world

Source: Compiled from Worldometers data

From the data which is available one can see that the declining trend in the number of deaths continuous with a slight increase in the number of cases. Belgium replaced Peru on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Bahrain has the most cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Bahrain example demonstrate.

Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases

CountryDeaths/1M pop.Total cases/1M pop.
Belgium1 373 
Peru1 078 
Spain942 
Italy861 
UK831 
Bahrain19749 971
Qatar 49 096
Belgium 48 390
Czechia 47 141
USA 39 598
South Africa35613 010
Germany18311 726
Namibia575 473

The trend in the Namibian reported number of cases of Covid-19 had a turning point after 23 August and a strong declining trend is visible from the 3 day moving average with a sideways movement at an average of 39 for the last 4 weeks. 

Graph 3: The Namibian Covid-19 cases

Source: Worldometers

The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries. 

Graph 4: MSCI World Index

The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Tuesday at 2587, an increase of 7.6%. The improvement in stock markets during the last days is the result of the win of Biden in the US election and the announcements of vaccines for COVID-19. However, this positive sentiment is not yet reflected in the real economy with the monthly decline of -14.62% in the Baltic Dry Index (The Baltic Dry Index provides a benchmark for the price of moving major raw materials by sea).  

Table 5: % change in USD: selected international commodity prices

CommodityMonthlyYearly
Winners for Namibia  
Energy: Brent oil18.69%-26.35%
Gold-5.08%18.43%
Uranium-1.02%17.30%
Copper8.26%18.37%
Zinc8.83%19.91%
Lead14.42%5.42%

 Source: Trading economics. 26 November 2020 

The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point in June. Oil prices increased in the past two weeks and for the month by 18.69%. The exchange rate strengthened further this week and the N$ is currently trading 15.12 to the US Dollar and 18.03 to the Euro. The strengthening of the Rand is on the back of a win by Biden and an improved trade with China, which is good for commodity prices and thus a stronger Rand. 

Compiled by: Rainer Ritter                   

26 November 2020