Namibia Logistics Association

2020/39 Coronavirus and the World Economy

Coronavirus and the World Economy

The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 14 447 cases and South Africa 796 472. The latest cases and deaths are the following:

Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 25 June –03 December

Region/CountryCases25 JuneCases30 JulyCases27 AugCases01 OctCases29 OctCases03 Dec
China83 44984 16585 00485 41485 91586 567
Europe1 647 9921 866 6092 214 4003 518 2177 138 50814 287 437
Africa329 888874 8041 204 1341 480 0151 732 4052 158 781
North America2 564 9504 683 5076 126 7827 611 7829 362 93614 781 622
Rest of the World4 916 8849 678 84114. 705  21. 52926 634 42933 938 335
Total9 543 16317. 188  24. 335 34. 22544 954 19365 252 772

Source: worldometers.info

From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 52.4% of all reported cases. There is a second wave in Europe currently with subsequent restrictions announced. The US reported 14 388 541 cases and 280 989 deaths. Only 3.3% of the reported cases and 3.47% of the deaths are on the African continent. 

Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 25 June –03 December

Region/CountryDeaths25 JuneDeaths30 JulyDeaths27 AugDeaths01 OctDeaths/29 Oct Deaths/03 Dec
China4 6344 6344 6344 6344 6344 634
Europe179 129184 792186 461196 461223 689354 912
Africa8 85619 64928 56635 73742 67452 429
North America[1]132 766162 757192 747221 130243 379293 358
Rest of the World159 901297 375417 268561 432667 209770 885
Total485 294670 207829 6761 019 8301 181 5851 507 103

Source: worldometers.info

[1] North America is Canada and the US

If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 1 590 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 61.1% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World. 

The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 2 158 781 cases and 52 429 deaths. There are only 926 955 cases reported in the SADC region and 23 980 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 86.0% of the cases and 90.4% of the number of deaths.

 Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 27 Aug – 03 December 2020

SADC countryCases27 AugCases01 OctCases29 OctCases03 DecDeaths27 AugDeaths01 OctDeaths29 OctDeaths03 Dec
South Africa615 701674 339719 714796 47213 50216 73419 11121 709
Madagascar14 55416 45416 96817 341181232244251
Zambia11 37615 75916 32517 730282282348357
Mozambique3 5908 72812 41515 918216191132
Angola2 3325 72510 07415 319103183275351
Namibia6 43211 26512 25314 47759121133151
DRC9 91210 68511 21112 987254272305336
Zimbabwe6 2517 9198 32010 129179228242277
Botswana1 6333 1726 28310 7426162134
Eswatini4 3875 6175 8866 45588109116122
Malawi5 4745 7735 9046 040173179184185
Lesotho1 0511 5952 0262 14531364344
Tanzania50950950950921212121
Mauritius34838143950810101010
Seychelles136144153183
Total683 685766 096828 954926 9558 23514 91021 14423 980

Source: Worldometers.info

Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend which has come to an end in week 32. For 6 weeks we have worldwide an increasing trend, especially in the number of deaths. 

Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths

The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of June 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. The number of Covid-19 cases are increasing again, especially in Europe and the US.  

From the data which is available one can see that the declining trend in the number of deaths continuous with a slight increase in the number of cases. Belgium replaced Peru on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Bahrain has the most cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Bahrain example demonstrate.

Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases

CountryDeaths/1M pop.Total cases/1M pop.
Belgium1 456 
Peru1 088 
Spain985 
Italy961 
UK884 
Bahrain19850 566
Qatar 49 675
Belgium 50 157
Czechia 49 990
USA 43 362
South Africa36413 359
Germany21513 312
Namibia595 655

Source: Compiled from Worldometers data

The trend in the Namibian reported number of cases of Covid-19 had a turning point after 23 August and a strong declining trend is visible from the 3 day moving average with a slightly increasing trend in the last 2 weeks. 

Graph 2: The Namibian Covid-19 cases

With an estimated world population of 7.8 billion in 2020, the total number of 65.25 million cases is 0.83% of the world population and the number of deaths is 0.019%. The damage done by pollution and the loss of biodiversity is much more profound and threatening to humankind than the Covid-19 pandemic, but the media loves news which is stirring emotions. 

The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries. 

Graph 3: MSCI World Index

The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Tuesday at 2621, an increase of 9.1%. The improvement in stock markets during the last days is based on the confidence that vaccines are available soon. However, this positive sentiment is not yet reflected fully in the real economy with the monthly decline of -2.86% in the Baltic Dry Index (The Baltic Dry Index provides a benchmark for the price of moving major raw materials by sea).  

The performance of the South African economy has a big impact on the Namibian economy, from SACU income to the sales of Windhoek beer. Both, Moody’s and Fitch rating downgraded South Africa to junk status at the end of November. The trigger for the further downgrade was the fiscal outlook. South Africa’s price for Zumanomics and persistent state capture is eventually a gradual decline in ratings in the last decade. If Southern Africa intends to become investor friendly, they have to address corruption and refrain from the state development agenda and the short-lived grandeur of mega projects with the intention that the political elite benefits through ‘project facilitation fees’. 

Table 5: Southern Africa has become a risk for investors and only Botswana shines

CountryRatingDescriptionScore
BotswanaA2Upper medium grade70
South AfricaBB-Speculative45
NamibiaBB-Speculative45
ZambiaCCCSubstantial risks30
AngolaCCCSubstantial risks21
MozambiqueCCCSubstantial risks14
ZimbabweCIn default5

Source: Rating agencies

The last credit rating of Namibia was in June 2020 by Fitch rating.

Table 6: % change in USD- selected international commodity prices

CommodityMonthlyYearly
Winners for Namibia  
Energy: Brent oil18.36%-26.50%
Gold-3.32%20.40%
Uranium0.02%18.91%
Copper12.19%23.34%
Zinc6.74%19.58%
Lead13.54%6.73%

 Source: Trading economics. 03 December 2020 

The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point in June. Oil prices increased in the past two weeks and for the month by 18.36%. The exchange rate weakened this week and the N$ is currently trading 15.33 to the US Dollar and 18.58 to the Euro. 

I wish all readers a Merry Christmas!

Compiled by: Rainer Ritter                   

03 December 2020