Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 14 447 cases and South Africa 796 472. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 25 June –03 December
Region/Country | Cases25 June | Cases30 July | Cases27 Aug | Cases01 Oct | Cases29 Oct | Cases03 Dec |
China | 83 449 | 84 165 | 85 004 | 85 414 | 85 915 | 86 567 |
Europe | 1 647 992 | 1 866 609 | 2 214 400 | 3 518 217 | 7 138 508 | 14 287 437 |
Africa | 329 888 | 874 804 | 1 204 134 | 1 480 015 | 1 732 405 | 2 158 781 |
North America | 2 564 950 | 4 683 507 | 6 126 782 | 7 611 782 | 9 362 936 | 14 781 622 |
Rest of the World | 4 916 884 | 9 678 841 | 14. 705 | 21. 529 | 26 634 429 | 33 938 335 |
Total | 9 543 163 | 17. 188 | 24. 335 | 34. 225 | 44 954 193 | 65 252 772 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 52.4% of all reported cases. There is a second wave in Europe currently with subsequent restrictions announced. The US reported 14 388 541 cases and 280 989 deaths. Only 3.3% of the reported cases and 3.47% of the deaths are on the African continent.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 25 June –03 December
Region/Country | Deaths25 June | Deaths30 July | Deaths27 Aug | Deaths01 Oct | Deaths/29 Oct | Deaths/03 Dec |
China | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
Europe | 179 129 | 184 792 | 186 461 | 196 461 | 223 689 | 354 912 |
Africa | 8 856 | 19 649 | 28 566 | 35 737 | 42 674 | 52 429 |
North America[1] | 132 766 | 162 757 | 192 747 | 221 130 | 243 379 | 293 358 |
Rest of the World | 159 901 | 297 375 | 417 268 | 561 432 | 667 209 | 770 885 |
Total | 485 294 | 670 207 | 829 676 | 1 019 830 | 1 181 585 | 1 507 103 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 1 590 000 in a weeks’ time. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 61.1% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 2 158 781 cases and 52 429 deaths. There are only 926 955 cases reported in the SADC region and 23 980 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 86.0% of the cases and 90.4% of the number of deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 27 Aug – 03 December 2020
SADC country | Cases27 Aug | Cases01 Oct | Cases29 Oct | Cases03 Dec | Deaths27 Aug | Deaths01 Oct | Deaths29 Oct | Deaths03 Dec |
South Africa | 615 701 | 674 339 | 719 714 | 796 472 | 13 502 | 16 734 | 19 111 | 21 709 |
Madagascar | 14 554 | 16 454 | 16 968 | 17 341 | 181 | 232 | 244 | 251 |
Zambia | 11 376 | 15 759 | 16 325 | 17 730 | 282 | 282 | 348 | 357 |
Mozambique | 3 590 | 8 728 | 12 415 | 15 918 | 21 | 61 | 91 | 132 |
Angola | 2 332 | 5 725 | 10 074 | 15 319 | 103 | 183 | 275 | 351 |
Namibia | 6 432 | 11 265 | 12 253 | 14 477 | 59 | 121 | 133 | 151 |
DRC | 9 912 | 10 685 | 11 211 | 12 987 | 254 | 272 | 305 | 336 |
Zimbabwe | 6 251 | 7 919 | 8 320 | 10 129 | 179 | 228 | 242 | 277 |
Botswana | 1 633 | 3 172 | 6 283 | 10 742 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 34 |
Eswatini | 4 387 | 5 617 | 5 886 | 6 455 | 88 | 109 | 116 | 122 |
Malawi | 5 474 | 5 773 | 5 904 | 6 040 | 173 | 179 | 184 | 185 |
Lesotho | 1 051 | 1 595 | 2 026 | 2 145 | 31 | 36 | 43 | 44 |
Tanzania | 509 | 509 | 509 | 509 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
Mauritius | 348 | 381 | 439 | 508 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Seychelles | 136 | 144 | 153 | 183 | – | – | – | – |
Total | 683 685 | 766 096 | 828 954 | 926 955 | 8 235 | 14 910 | 21 144 | 23 980 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend which has come to an end in week 32. For 6 weeks we have worldwide an increasing trend, especially in the number of deaths.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of June 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. The number of Covid-19 cases are increasing again, especially in Europe and the US.
From the data which is available one can see that the declining trend in the number of deaths continuous with a slight increase in the number of cases. Belgium replaced Peru on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Bahrain has the most cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Bahrain example demonstrate.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
Belgium | 1 456 | |
Peru | 1 088 | |
Spain | 985 | |
Italy | 961 | |
UK | 884 | |
Bahrain | 198 | 50 566 |
Qatar | 49 675 | |
Belgium | 50 157 | |
Czechia | 49 990 | |
USA | 43 362 | |
South Africa | 364 | 13 359 |
Germany | 215 | 13 312 |
Namibia | 59 | 5 655 |
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
The trend in the Namibian reported number of cases of Covid-19 had a turning point after 23 August and a strong declining trend is visible from the 3 day moving average with a slightly increasing trend in the last 2 weeks.
Graph 2: The Namibian Covid-19 cases
With an estimated world population of 7.8 billion in 2020, the total number of 65.25 million cases is 0.83% of the world population and the number of deaths is 0.019%. The damage done by pollution and the loss of biodiversity is much more profound and threatening to humankind than the Covid-19 pandemic, but the media loves news which is stirring emotions.
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 3: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Tuesday at 2621, an increase of 9.1%. The improvement in stock markets during the last days is based on the confidence that vaccines are available soon. However, this positive sentiment is not yet reflected fully in the real economy with the monthly decline of -2.86% in the Baltic Dry Index (The Baltic Dry Index provides a benchmark for the price of moving major raw materials by sea).
The performance of the South African economy has a big impact on the Namibian economy, from SACU income to the sales of Windhoek beer. Both, Moody’s and Fitch rating downgraded South Africa to junk status at the end of November. The trigger for the further downgrade was the fiscal outlook. South Africa’s price for Zumanomics and persistent state capture is eventually a gradual decline in ratings in the last decade. If Southern Africa intends to become investor friendly, they have to address corruption and refrain from the state development agenda and the short-lived grandeur of mega projects with the intention that the political elite benefits through ‘project facilitation fees’.
Table 5: Southern Africa has become a risk for investors and only Botswana shines
Country | Rating | Description | Score |
Botswana | A2 | Upper medium grade | 70 |
South Africa | BB- | Speculative | 45 |
Namibia | BB- | Speculative | 45 |
Zambia | CCC | Substantial risks | 30 |
Angola | CCC | Substantial risks | 21 |
Mozambique | CCC | Substantial risks | 14 |
Zimbabwe | C | In default | 5 |
Source: Rating agencies
The last credit rating of Namibia was in June 2020 by Fitch rating.
Table 6: % change in USD- selected international commodity prices
Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
Winners for Namibia | ||
Energy: Brent oil | 18.36% | -26.50% |
Gold | -3.32% | 20.40% |
Uranium | 0.02% | 18.91% |
Copper | 12.19% | 23.34% |
Zinc | 6.74% | 19.58% |
Lead | 13.54% | 6.73% |
Source: Trading economics. 03 December 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point in June. Oil prices increased in the past two weeks and for the month by 18.36%. The exchange rate weakened this week and the N$ is currently trading 15.33 to the US Dollar and 18.58 to the Euro.
I wish all readers a Merry Christmas!
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
03 December 2020