Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has currently 36 225 cases and 389 deaths. South Africa have currently 1 492 909 cases. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 03 January to 16 February 2021
| Region/Country | Cases03 Jan | Cases18 Jan | Cases2 Feb | Cases16 Feb |
| China | 87 117 | 88 336 | 89 594 | 89 788 |
| Europe | 19 867 286 | 22 531 724 | 25 123 464 | 26 570 303 |
| Africa | 2 777 596 | 3 237 290 | 3 571 207 | 3 664 643 |
| North America | 21 505 518 | 25 205 353 | 27 709 333 | 29 144 627 |
| Rest of the World | 40 864 891 | 44 612 373 | 47 626 517 | 50 206 999 |
| Total | 85 102 408 | 95 675 076 | 104 120 115 | 109 676 360 |
Source: worldometers.info
Since the beginning of December most new cases were in Northern America and Europe. The Rest of the World was still 52.4% in the beginning of December and the share has declined to 45.8%. There is a strong declining trend in the number of cases since 8 January. The US remains on top of the list with reported 28.3 million cases and 498 203 deaths. Only 3.3% of the reported cases and 4.1% of the deaths are on the African continent. The number of newly reported deaths shows a declining trend since 27 January, with a lag of three weeks after the decline in cases.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 03 January to 16 February 2021
| Region/Country | Deaths03 Jan | Deaths18 Jan | Deaths02 Feb | Deaths16 Feb |
| China | 4 634 | 4 635 | 4 636 | 4 636 |
| Europe | 472 906 | 537 782 | 612 444 | 658 961 |
| Africa | 66 481 | 78 749 | 91 909 | 98 613 |
| North America[1] | 374 458 | 425 404 | 474 898 | 519 514 |
| Rest of the World | 927 281 | 997 023 | 1 070 080 | 1 136 644 |
| Total | 1 845 760 | 2 043 593 | 2 253 967 | 2 418 768 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
The African continent reported 3 664 643 cases and 98 613 deaths. There are only 1 834 484 cases reported in the SADC region and 54 284 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 81.4% of the cases and 88.6% of the number of deaths. South Africa also dominates the African continent with 40.7% of the cases and 48.8% of the deaths. Many African countries are underreporting and some countries are not reporting any new cases and deaths, like Tanzania since May last year.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 03 January- 16 February 2021
| SADC country | Cases03 Jan | Cases02 Feb | Cases16 Feb | Deaths03 Jan | Deaths02 Feb | Deaths16 Feb |
| South Africa | 1 088 889 | 1 456 309 | 1 492 909 | 29 175 | 44 399 | 48 094 |
| Zambia | 21 582 | 56 233 | 70 248 | 394 | 794 | 959 |
| Mozambique | 18 968 | 39 460 | 50 691 | 168 | 386 | 547 |
| Namibia | 25 116 | 34 270 | 36 225 | 215 | 355 | 389 |
| Zimbabwe | 14 491 | 33 548 | 35 222 | 377 | 1 234 | 1 410 |
| Malawi | 6 712 | 24 903 | 29 181 | 192 | 726 | 958 |
| Botswana | 14 805 | 22 738 | 25 802 | 42 | 148 | 226 |
| DRC | 17 998 | 23 043 | 24 386 | 595 | 675 | 693 |
| Angola | 17 608 | 19 829 | 20 381 | 407 | 466 | 493 |
| Madagascar | 17 767 | 19 065 | 19 598 | 262 | 281 | 292 |
| Eswatini | 9 711 | 15 804 | 16 576 | 227 | 574 | 634 |
| Lesotho | 3 206 | 8 900 | 10 245 | 65 | 172 | 243 |
| Seychelles | 297 | 1 243 | 1 910 | – | 5 | 8 |
| Mauritius | 527 | 583 | 601 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Tanzania | 509 | 509 | 509 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Total | 1 258 187 | 1 756 437 | 1 834 484 | 32 150 | 50 246 | 54 284 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Belgium is on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Andorra has the most cases.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
| Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
| Belgium | 1 867 | |
| Slovenia | 1 793 | |
| UK | 1 724 | |
| Czechia | 1 702 | |
| Italy | 1 553 | |
| Portugal | 1 514 | |
| Andorra | 1 383 | 136 250 |
| Montenegro | 110 320 | |
| Czechia | 101 745 | |
| Slovenia | 86 469 | |
| USA | 85 238 | |
| Luxembourg | 83 696 | |
| Germany | 786 | 27 955 |
| South Africa | 805 | 24 975 |
| Namibia | 151 | 14 098 |
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
The trend in the Namibian reported number of cases of Covid-19 experienced a third wave in the beginning of December and a turning point was reached at the end of December. This is visible from the 3 day moving average (graph below) with a strong declining trend. In the last few days the number of cases increased, but not dramatically.
Graph 1: The Namibian Covid-19 cases
With an estimated world population of 7.8 billion in 2020, the total number of 109.7 million cases is 1.4% of the world population and the number of deaths is 0.031%.
The World economy is improving and the monthly increase of 2.9% in the Baltic Dry Index (The Baltic Dry Index provides a benchmark for the price of moving major raw materials by sea) is one indicator.
Table 6: % change in USD- selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Copper | 6.35% | 9.21% |
| Lead | 6.88% | 6.92% |
| Zinc | 5.99% | 3.23% |
| Losers for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | 15.53% | 22.10% |
| Uranium | -2.94% | -3.26% |
| Gold | -0.66% | -3.78% |
Source: Trading economics. 16 February 2021
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia improved in the last two weeks, except gold and uranium. Oil prices increased in the past month by 15.53% and Brent reached USD 63.10 per barrel. The exchange rate has strengthened in the past two weeks and the N$ is currently trading 14.41 to the US Dollar and 17.50 to the Euro.
Closing down Air Namibia
That the airline is in trouble was known for more than two decades, a closure should not come as surprise after more than N$ 11 billion was spend on the airline. Many critics of the Cabinet decision were silent over the years and never made meaningful suggestions to save the airline.
The narrative of Air Namibia was that they a strategic factor for the growing tourism sector and thus a critical link between Europe (Frankfurt) and Namibia. This narrative has merit if the market is regulated and competition is not allowed. The argument looses appeal once competition is allowed and the market opened up for new entries. The debate about the future of Air Namibia and the subsequent governance and political decision has cost the taxpayers billions in subsidies. In the meantime most decision makers in Namibia forgot that the aviation industry is highly competitive, cyclical and evolving with the change in business models and technology. Many airlines disappeared or were bought in the last twenty years and some are under judicial management. Air Namibia was lucky since the end of the nineties, they managed to always find the ear of an uninformed politician who fell for the prevailing paradigm in Africa that an own airline is a nations pride. Since 2011 Namibia steered into a fiscal cul de sac and since 2016 the new policy of fiscal consolidation requires more responsible spending. The high public debt level, changing public spending priorities and political imperatives pulled the joker out of the hand of Air Namibia. Why use public funds to save an airline if more than 40% of the workforce is unemployed? We should have years ago gone into a strategic partnership with Ethiopian Airlines or Lufthansa, but the pride and ‘going it alone’ mentality was expensive. High public debt provided the fuse for the dynamite and common sense the light. Adieu Air Namibia!
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
16 February 2021