Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has currently 38 845 cases and 424 deaths. South Africa have currently 1 513 393 cases. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 03 January to 01 March 2021
| Region/Country | Cases03 Jan | Cases2 Feb | Cases16 Feb | Cases01 Mar |
| China | 87 117 | 88 594 | 89 788 | 89 912 |
| Europe | 19 867 286 | 25 123 464 | 26 570 303 | 28 066 750 |
| Africa | 2 777 596 | 3 571 207 | 3 664 643 | 3 747 852 |
| North America | 21 505 518 | 27 709 333 | 29 144 627 | 30 119 373 |
| Rest of the World | 40 864 891 | 47 626 517 | 50 206 999 | 52 742 253 |
| Total | 85 102 408 | 104 120 115 | 109 676 360 | 114 766 140 |
Source: worldometers.info
There is a strong declining trend in the number of cases since 8 January. Many countries started with a vaccination campaign and further reduction of cases can be expected. The US remains on top of the list with reported 29.3 million cases and 527 666 deaths. Only 3.3% of the reported cases and 4.0% of the deaths are on the African continent. The number of newly reported deaths shows a declining trend since 27 January, with a lag of three weeks after the decline in cases.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 03 January to 01 March 2021
| Region/Country | Deaths03 Jan | Deaths02 Feb | Deaths16 Feb | Deaths01 Mar |
| China | 4 634 | 4 636 | 4 636 | 4 636 |
| Europe | 472 906 | 612 444 | 658 961 | 699 603 |
| Africa | 66 481 | 91 909 | 98 613 | 101 873 |
| North America[1] | 374 458 | 474 898 | 519 514 | 547 774 |
| Rest of the World | 927 281 | 1 070 080 | 1 136 644 | 1 190 751 |
| Total | 1 845 760 | 2 253 967 | 2 418 768 | 2 544 637 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
The African continent reported 3 747 852 cases and 101 873 deaths. There are only 1 884 788 cases reported in the SADC region and 57 741 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 80.3% of the cases and 87.0% of the number of deaths. South Africa also dominates the African continent with 40.7% of the cases and 47.8% of the deaths. Many African countries are underreporting and some countries are not reporting any new cases and deaths, like Tanzania since May last year.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 03 January- 01 March 2021
| SADC country | Cases03 Jan | Cases02 Feb | Cases01 Mar | Deaths03 Jan | Deaths02 Feb | Deaths01 Mar |
| South Africa | 1 088 889 | 1 456 309 | 1 513 393 | 29 175 | 44 399 | 49 993 |
| Zambia | 21 582 | 56 233 | 79 002 | 394 | 794 | 1 098 |
| Mozambique | 18 968 | 39 460 | 59 350 | 168 | 386 | 641 |
| Namibia | 25 116 | 34 270 | 38 845 | 215 | 355 | 424 |
| Zimbabwe | 14 491 | 33 548 | 36 089 | 377 | 1 234 | 1 463 |
| Malawi | 6 712 | 24 903 | 31 945 | 192 | 726 | 1 044 |
| Botswana | 14 805 | 22 738 | 28 371 | 42 | 148 | 310 |
| DRC | 17 998 | 23 043 | 25 913 | 595 | 675 | 707 |
| Angola | 17 608 | 19 829 | 20 807 | 407 | 466 | 508 |
| Madagascar | 17 767 | 19 065 | 19 831 | 262 | 281 | 297 |
| Eswatini | 9 711 | 15 804 | 17 014 | 227 | 574 | 652 |
| Lesotho | 3 206 | 8 900 | 10 491 | 65 | 172 | 292 |
| Seychelles | 297 | 1 243 | 2 618 | – | 5 | 11 |
| Mauritius | 527 | 583 | 610 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Tanzania | 509 | 509 | 509 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Total | 1 258 187 | 1 756 437 | 1 884 788 | 32 150 | 50 246 | 57 471 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Czechia replaced Belgium on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Andorra has the most cases.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
| Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
| Czechia | 1 909 | |
| Belgium | 1 899 | |
| Slovenia | 1 854 | |
| UK | 1 803 | |
| Italy | 1 617 | |
| Portugal | 1 603 | |
| Andorra | 1 422 | 140 484 |
| Montenegro | 121 447 | |
| Czechia | 115 653 | |
| Slovenia | 91 540 | |
| USA | 88 047 | |
| Luxembourg | 87 618 | |
| Germany | 842 | 29 199 |
| South Africa | 836 | 25 307 |
| Namibia | 165 | 15 108 |
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
The trend in the Namibian reported number of cases of Covid-19 experienced a third wave in the beginning of December and a turning point was reached at the end of December. This is visible from the 3 day moving average (graph below) with a strong declining trend. In the last three weeks the number of cases has increased, but not dramatically.
Graph 1: The Namibian Covid-19 cases
With an estimated world population of 7.8 billion in 2020, the total number of 114.8 million cases is 1.47% of the world population and the number of deaths is 0.091%.
The World economy is improving and the Baltic Dry Index (The Baltic Dry Index provides a benchmark for the price of moving major raw materials by sea) jumped by 14% in February, the strongest monthly gain since September 2020.
Table 6: % change in USD- selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Copper | 14.93% | 16.66% |
| Lead | 2.86% | 4.15% |
| Zinc | 6.86% | 2.24% |
| Losers for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | 7.51% | 21.33% |
| Uranium | -6.20% | -8.79% |
| Gold | -6.31% | -9.41% |
Source: Trading economics. 01 March 2021
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia improved in the last two weeks, except gold and uranium. Oil prices increased in the past month by 7.51%. The exchange rate has weakened in the past two weeks and the N$ is currently trading 15.00 to the US Dollar and 18.10 to the Euro.
According to the IMF the world economy contracted by 3.5 percent in 2020 and it is projected that real growth of the world economy will be 5.5 percent in 2021.
The Bank of Namibia projected real growth in GDP of 2.7 percent in 2021 increasing to 3.3 percent in 2022.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
01 March 2021