Coronavirus and the World Economy
The coronavirus has arrived in the most remote place of the World and 213 countries and territories are affected. Namibia has now 10 663 cases and South Africa 665 188. The latest cases and deaths are the following:
Table 1: Coronavirus cases – 30 April –24 September
| Region/Country | Cases30 Apr | Cases28 May | Cases25 June | Cases30 July | Cases27 Aug | Cases24 Sep |
| China | 82 862 | 82 995 | 83 449 | 84 165 | 85 004 | 85 314 |
| Europe | 1 219 278 | 1 509 013 | 1 647 992 | 1 866 609 | 2 214 400 | 3 218 401 |
| Africa | 36 703 | 121 077 | 329 888 | 874 804 | 1 204 134 | 1 397 801 |
| North America | 1 116 169 | 1 833 322 | 2 564 950 | 4 683 507 | 6 126 782 | 7 287 893 |
| Rest of the World | 766 572 | 2 243 696 | 4 916 884 | 9 678 841 | 14 705 421 | 20 147 699 |
| Total | 3 221 584 | 5 790 103 | 9 543 163 | 17.188 | 24 335 741 | 32 137 108 |
Source: worldometers.info
From the middle of March the epicentre of the coronavirus has shifted from China to Europe, the US and then to the rest of the World with 62.7% of all reported cases. The US reported 7 140 137 cases and 206 598 deaths. Only 4.3% of the reported cases and 3.5% of the deaths are on the African continent and we are over the peak.
Table 2: Coronavirus deaths – 30 April –24 September
| Region/Country | Deaths30 Apr | Deaths28 May | Deaths25 June | Deaths30 July | Deaths/27 Aug | Deaths/24 Sep |
| China | 4 633 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 | 4 634 |
| Europe | 131 603 | 165 662 | 179 129 | 184 792 | 186 461 | 193 142 |
| Africa | 1 577 | 3 663 | 8 856 | 19 649 | 28 566 | 33 942 |
| North America[1] | 64 665 | 108 872 | 132 766 | 162 757 | 192 747 | 215 841 |
| Rest of the World | 25 805 | 74 601 | 159 901 | 297 375 | 417 268 | 555 159 |
| Total | 228 263 | 357 432 | 485 294 | 670 207 | 829 676 | 982 718 |
Source: worldometers.info
[1] North America is Canada and the US
If the current trend continues the total number of deaths will be around 1 035 000 in a weeks’ time, for the first over one million. The USA, Brazil, UK, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico and India have today 62.7% of the number of deaths reported in the whole World.
The African continent reached a turning point and all countries reported 1 397 801 cases and 33 942 deaths. There are only 752 484 cases reported in the SADC region and 17 954 deaths. South Africa is dominating SADC with 88.4% of the cases and 90.3% of the number of deaths.
Table 3: Coronavirus cases and deaths in the SADC region – 25 June – 24 September 2020
| SADC country | Cases25 Jun | Cases30 Jul | Cases27 Aug | Cases24 Sep | Deaths25 Jun | Deaths30 Jul | Deaths27 Aug | Deaths24 Sep |
| South Africa | 111 796 | 471 123 | 615 701 | 665 118 | 2 205 | 7 497 | 13 502 | 16 206 |
| Madagascar | 1 787 | 10 317 | 14 554 | 16 191 | 16 | 99 | 181 | 227 |
| Zambia | 1 489 | 5 249 | 11 376 | 14 443 | 18 | 146 | 282 | 332 |
| Namibia | 90 | 1 986 | 6 431 | 10 663 | – | 9 | 59 | 117 |
| DRC | 6 213 | 8 931 | 9 912 | 10 537 | 142 | 210 | 254 | 271 |
| Zimbabwe | 530 | 2 879 | 6 251 | 7 725 | 6 | 41 | 179 | 227 |
| Mozambique | 762 | 1 748 | 3 590 | 7 262 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 49 |
| Malawi | 941 | 3 738 | 5 474 | 5 746 | 11 | 103 | 173 | 179 |
| Eswatini | 690 | 2 551 | 4 387 | 5 343 | 7 | 40 | 88 | 108 |
| Angola | 197 | 812 | 2 332 | 4 363 | 10 | 33 | 103 | 159 |
| Botswana | 92 | 804 | 1 633 | 2 567 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| Lesotho | 17 | 576 | 1 051 | 1 507 | – | 13 | 31 | 35 |
| Tanzania | 509 | 509 | 509 | 509 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Mauritius | 341 | 344 | 348 | 367 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Seychelles | 11 | 114 | 136 | 143 | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 125 465 | 511 681 | 683 685 | 752 484 | 2 452 | 8 235 | 14 910 | 17 954 |
Source: Worldometers.info
Graph one below illustrate that the peak has been reached and we are in a declining trend for 28 weeks.
Graph 1: Weekly change of the World’s coronavirus cases and deaths
The graph above depicts the weekly change since beginning of April 2020 in the whole World of reported cases and deaths. For the declining trend continued especially with the number of deaths.
Graph 2: COVID 19 cases and deaths in Africa and the rest of the world
Source: Compiled from Worldometers data
From the data which is available one can see that we entered this week in a ‘makeer die pas’ trend. There might be a third wave coming regarding the number of deaths, cases declined further. Which countries are the worst affected countries according to deaths and recorded cases? Peru has replaced Belgium on top of the list with the number of deaths per population and Qatar with the number of cases. A high number of cases do not automatically mean a high number of deaths, as the Qatar example demonstrate.
Table 4: Worst affected countries according to deaths and cases
| Country | Deaths/1M pop. | Total cases/1M pop. |
| Peru | 964 | |
| Belgium | 858 | |
| Spain | 664 | |
| Bolivia | 660 | |
| Brazil | 653 | |
| Qatar | 76 | 44 226 |
| Bahrain | 39 087 | |
| Panama | 24 939 | |
| Kuwait | 23 769 | |
| Peru | 23 663 | |
| South Africa | 272 | 11 183 |
| Germany | 113 | 3 330 |
| Namibia | 46 | 4 179 |
Source: Worldometers
What is the trend in the Namibian reported cases of Covid-19? We can firmly establish already a turning point after 23 August and a strong declining trend is visible from the 3 day moving average.
Graph 3: The Namibian Covid-19 cases
Source: Worldometers
The World economy is out of a severe recession as the MSCI World Index (below) is signalling. The MSCI World Index consists of the stock exchange performance of 28 countries.
Graph 4: MSCI World Index
The MSCI index was at 2403 on 22 February 2020 and closed on Wednesday at 2306, a decline of -4.0%. Has a new turning point arrived? Stock markets are nervous due to a rise in US unemployment and an increase in COVID 19 cases in Spain, France and the Netherlands.
Table 5: Selected international commodity prices
| Commodity | Monthly | Yearly |
| Winners for Namibia | ||
| Energy: Brent oil | -9.07% | -29.19% |
| Gold | -2.90% | 24.49% |
| Uranium | -7.38% | 17.12% |
| Copper | 1.31% | 14.62% |
| Zinc | -4.52% | 3.36% |
| Losers | ||
| Lead | -5.24% | -11.70% |
Source: Trading economics. 24 September 2020
The commodity prices relevant to Namibia reached a turning point seventeen weeks ago in the past three weeks prices weakened again coupled with the nervousness in the international stock markets. Oil prices declined by -9.07% for the month and only copper prices hold on their momentum. The exchange rate weakened slightly this week. The N$ is currently trading 17.18 to the US Dollar and 20.02 to the Euro.
Compiled by: Rainer Ritter
24 September 2020